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The US dollar index continues to rebound, and the risk of the US government shutdown has risen again!
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar index continues to rebound momentum, and the risk of the US government shutdown has risen again!". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 22, in the early trading of Asian market on Monday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered at 97.74. Last Friday, the US dollar index continued its rebound momentum and once rose to a day high of 97.81 before the US session, and finally closed up 0.33%, and the daily line recorded three consecutive increases to 97.67. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.133%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.584%. Spot gold rose with the US dollar and accelerated its rise before the US session, with a sharp rise of $50 at a low of $1.12%, closing at $3,685.47/ounce, the fifth consecutive week of closing; spot silver finally closed up 2.94%, at $43.03/ounce. International crude oil continued to decline as market concerns over large supply and demand declines exceeded expectations that the Fed's first rate cut this year would stimulate consumption. WTI crude oil continued to fall during the day, finally closing down 1.54% to $62.29 per barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 1.47% to $66.08 per barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovered around 97.74. Everyone's eyes were focused on Friday's Fed's preferred inflation indicator - the August personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index - and the final data of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in September. Technically, the US dollar index closed above the previous resistance level 97.10–97.30 and tried to close above the 97.50 level. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next resistance level, which is in the 98.00–98.20 range.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On the Asian session on Monday, gold hovered around 3690.55. Last week, the global gold market ushered in a milestone again. Looking ahead to this week, the market will usher in a series of key data, including the US, Japan and Europe September PMI on Tuesday, the US second quarter GDP final value and durable goods orders on Thursday, the US PCE inflation report on Friday, and the views of several Fed officials, especially the views of new member Miran of the Federal Reserve. These data will directly affect the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October, and the current market price is 91.9%. If PCE shows that inflation is cooled and employment data is weak, gold prices are expected to resume their rise; on the contrary, if the data is strong, the pressure to pull back will increase.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On the Asian session on Monday, crude oil trading was around 62.45. Oil prices fell last Friday as concerns about large supply and demand declines surpassed expectations that the Fed's first rate cut this year would spark more consumption.
Forex market trading reminder on September 22, 2025
①09:00 China to September 22, one-year loan market quotation rate
②09:00 RBA Chairman Brock gave a testimony statement
③15:00 State Information Office held a press conference
④21:45 Fed Williams delivered a speech
⑤22:00 Eurozone September Consumer Confidence Index
⑥22:00 Fed Mousalem delivered a speech
⑦ The next day 00:00 Fed Hamak made a speech on the US economy
⑧The next day, the Fed Barkin made a speech on the economic situation
⑨The next day, the Bank of England Governor Bailey made a speech
⑩The next day, the New York crude oil October futures xn--xm-6d1dw86k.completed the final on-site trading
The above content is about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The US dollar index continues to rebound momentum, and the risk of the US government shutdown has risen again!" is carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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