Israel's war target is "not limited to Gaza", and risk aversion demand drives gold price pointing to the 3750 mark

Basic news

On Tuesday (September 23, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3744.18/ounce, and gold prices hit a new record high on Monday to $3748.62/ounce, driven by the rising expectations of further interest rate cuts in the United States and the continued safe-haven demand under political uncertainty. U.S. crude oil traded around $62.30 a barrel, and oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday as concerns about oversupply outweighed the impact on geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East.

Stock Market

The three major U.S. stock indexes hit record closing highs for the third consecutive trading day on Monday, with technology stocks leading the gains and Nvidia rising, after the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.company said it would invest as much as $100 billion in OpenAI.

Nvidia's stock price rose 3.9%. The two sides said the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.company will also supply data center chips to OpenAI, which further stimulated market optimism about the prospects of artificial intelligence. Apple's shares rose 4.3% after Wedbush raised its target price on signs of strong demand for iPhone 17. Tesla rose 1.9%. The technology sector closed up 1.7%, leading the S&P 500 sectors.

Some Fed officials delivered speeches questioning the need for further rate cuts. Last week, the Fed cut interest rates for the first time since December and hinted that it would continue to cut interest rates in several meetings to xn--xm-6d1dw86k.come.

St. Louis Fed Chairman Alberto Musalem and Atlanta Fed Chairman Raphael Bostic said, althoughThe Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week to cope with the risk of rising unemployment, but reducing inflation remains a priority.

However, Fed Director Stephen Miran voted against the rate cut decision at last week's meeting, believing that the rate cut should be cut by 50 basis points. He said on Monday that monetary policy is “highly restrictive”, with the S&P 500 rising 13.8% year to date and 3.6% so far in September, and September has been a weaker month for stocks.

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president and consultant at Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut, said, "We will certainly remind customers and reflect in the portfolio that the current market is at an all-time high and valuations are getting higher. If the stock market wants to rise sharply, new catalytic factors are needed, and the market seems to be ignoring potential resistance."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.14% to 46,381.54 points; the S&P 500 rose 0.44% to 6,693.75 points; and the Nasdaq rose 0.70% to 22,788.98 points.

Other investors are concerned that U.S. President Trump’s new visa fee policy against foreign workers has sparked widespread condemnation from tech executives and social media.

Tylenol maker Kenvue shares fell 7.5% intraday as investors fear Trump will issue a statement linking the painkiller to autism. After the close, Trump said the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will ask doctors to advise pregnant women to avoid acetaminophen, the main ingredient of Tylenol. Kenvue shares rebounded, up 4.7% after the announcement.

One of the key economic data to be released this week will be the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, a highly-watched inflation indicator.

Golden market

Gold rose nearly 2% on Monday, hitting a record high, driven by rising expectations of further interest rate cuts in the United States and continued safe-haven demand amid political uncertainty.

Investors are closely following the upcoming speeches by the Federal Reserve Chairman and key inflation data in search of new policy signals.

Spot gold rose 1.7%, hitting an all-time high of $3748.62 per ounce. US gold futures for December delivery closed up 1.9% to $3775.10.

Federal Director Milan said the Fed should actively cut interest rates to reduce risks to the economic outlook. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, the first rate cut since December and expressed its willingness to further relax policies.

Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at KitcoMetals, said that as the geopolitical situation, including the Russian-Ukrainian war, remains volatile, demand for risk aversion continues to surge. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates last week andThe Fed may have more rate cuts before the end of the year, which is also a factor supporting the price.

Investors are closely watching a series of speeches from the Federal Reserve this week, including Chairman Powell's speech on Tuesday, in search of new signals on the central bank's monetary policy path. Friday's U.S. core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price data was also the focus.

Spot silver rose 2.1% to $43.99 an ounce, hitting a record high in more than 14 years. Platinum rose 1% to $1,418.61; palladium rose 3.3% to $1,186.71.

Nemo.money chief market analyst Han Tan said that silver may have new room for gains as investors turn their attention to record highs in gold. Oil prices closed slightly lower on Monday as concerns about oversupply outweighed the impact on geopolitical tensions in Russia and the Middle East.

Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.2% at $66.57 a barrel. The global indicator crude oil price has been fluctuating between $65.50 and $69 since early August.

The October contract of U.S. crude oil (WTI) that expired on Monday closed at $62.64 per barrel, down 0.1%. The next month contract, which was more active in trading, closed at $62.28 per barrel, down 0.2%.

Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOKFinancial, said traders are starting to focus on the oversupply of the global oil market that could soon arrive unless the U.S. and the EU can agree on stricter tariffs on countries buying Russian crude oil.

Iraq is the second largest oil producer of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and Iraq's National Petroleum Marketing Organization (SOMO) said that under the OPEC+ agreement, Iraq has increased oil exports. The organization also expects exports to be between 3.4 million barrels per day and 3.45 million barrels per day in September.

Kuwaiti's oil minister Tariq Al-Roumi told local newspaper AlQabas that Kuwait's crude oil production capacity is 3.2 million barrels per day, the highest level in more than a decade.

The situation in multiple Western countries recognized that the Palestinian state has caused tensions in the Middle East, and tensions have also emerged in Eastern Europe after Estonia said last Friday that Russian fighter jets entered its airspace without permission. But none of these developments immediately resulted in an interruption of oil supply.

Foreign market

The dollar ended three-day consecutive gains against the euro and Swiss franc on Monday as investors digested a series of xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comments made by Fed officials on its latest monetary policy stance.

The U.S. dollar hovered near levels before the Fed decided to start cutting interest rates last week. Analysts say the current pricing is consistent with the Federal Reserve’s message, which emphasizes that growing concerns about the U.S. labor market are the main drivers of policy.

BNY market macro policyBob Savage, the director of the country, said. The lack of important data before the release of core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data on Friday has led investors to rethink the Fed's interest rate cuts and plans for the future.

The US dollar fell 0.38% against the Swiss franc in New York to 0.792, and the trend will end the three consecutive trading days of gains. St. Louis Federal Reserve Chairman Mousalem said on Monday that he supported the Fed's decision to cut interest rates at last week's meeting, believing it was a preventive move to protect the job market. But he also pointed out that given that inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, there may be "limited" room for further interest rate cuts.

Federal Director Milan said on Monday that changes in immigration, taxation and regulatory policies are bound to lower potential U.S. interest rates, making current monetary policy far more restrictive than what is needed to keep inflation at the Fed's 2% target.

Milan expressed opposition last week when the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by one quarter percentage point, believing that it should be lowered by half a percentage point. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on Tuesday. "The data this week is relatively small, and the U.S. second-quarter earnings season has basically ended, and it may be difficult for traders to find direction for most of the week, besides worrying about new ‘emergencies’ and speeches from Fed officials starting today." U.S. President Trump repeatedly criticized the Fed, urging it to cut interest rates more aggressively.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at BannockburnForex, New York, said: "We saw a strong rebound in the U.S. dollar after the FOMC meeting, but this rebound was a bit stagnant. I thought the U.S. dollar would have more gains before the next batch of employment data were released. There was not much economic data this week, but it is worth noting that at the FOMC meeting, there were great differences in opinions from all parties. More than half of the Fed members will speak this week, and Powell's speech may be the focus tomorrow."

The euro against the U.S. dollar was 1.1796, up 0.44%, and the trend will end the three consecutive trading days of decline. The dollar index, which measures the dollar exchange rate against a basket of currencies, including the Japanese yen and the euro, fell 0.39% to 97.34. The index is expected to break the rise for three consecutive trading days.

The Swedish Krona rose 0.75% against the US dollar to 9.356 ahead of the Swedish central bank policy meeting on Tuesday.

The US dollar fell 0.17% against the Japanese Yen to 147.69 yen, falling for the second consecutive trading day. The Bank of Japan's hawkish turn last week fueled speculation about a recent rate hike, but failed to support the yen.

Analysts say the political uncertainty ahead of the Liberal Democratic Party leadership election scheduled for October 4 is a factor in the Bank of Japan's cautious attitude towards further rate hikes.

The pound rose against the dollar on Monday as investors took a break after selling the pound last Friday due to fiscal concerns. Pound rose 0.37% to 1.3516Dollar. The Australian dollar rose 0.12% against the dollar to $0.6599, reversing an earlier decline.

International News

More countries recognize the Palestinian State. Israel’s war target is “not limited to Gaza”. On September 22, US time, France, Belgium and other countries announced their official recognition of the Palestinian State. So far, more than 150 of the 193 member states of the United Nations have recognized the Palestinian State. At the same time, Israel was frigid, and even threatened that its target was not only Gaza. With the holding of a high-level international conference on peaceful resolution of the Palestinian issue and the implementation of the "two-state solution", the international xn--xm-6d1dw86k.community has once again set off a "tide of recognition". The rift of consensus on Israel's policy within the Western world is gradually increasing, and Israel is in greater isolation.

The Israeli representative said that he would no longer talk about the two-state solution

On the afternoon of September 22 local time, before the high-level international conference on peaceful resolution of the Palestinian issue and the implementation of the "two-state solution", Israel's Permanent Representative to the United Nations Danny Danon said that this meeting was a "play of countries in order to satisfy internal politics" and Israel will continue its military operations. In response to a CCTV reporter's question on whether Israel will still discuss the "two-state solution", Danon said that there was indeed discussion in Israel before the attack on October 7, 2023. After reporters asked, Danon said, "I will not talk about the 'two-state solution' anymore."

The US government canceled visas for many Brazilian officials

On September 22 local time, local time, the US government canceled U.S. visas for many Brazilian officials, including Brazilian Attorney General Jorge Messias, former Attorney General Jose Levi and others. At the same time, the United States also imposed sanctions on the wife of Brazil's Supreme Court Justice De Morais, whose assets related to the United States will be frozen. On the same day, the Brazilian Supreme Court issued a statement saying that the United States imposed unfair sanctions on De Morais' wife.

Milan's first policy show said interest rates were too high Trump's cronies explained why a sharp cut was needed soon

Federal director Stephen Milan said interest rates were too high and explained the need for a sharp cut in the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming months to protect the labor market. Milan, who has delivered its first policy speech since President Donald Trump's appointment as Fed governor, elaborated on the reasons for the decline in neutral interest rates that neither stimulate nor restrain the economy. Milan proposed that neutral interest rates, which could have been overvalued in the past, have recently declined due to tariffs, immigration restrictions and tax policies. This means interest rates should be significantly lowered to prevent damage to the economy, he said. "The result is that monetary policy is already severely restrictive," Milan said in a pre-prepared speech at the New York Economic Club on Monday. "Keeping short-term interest rates at an overtight level of about 2 percentage points brings risks of unnecessary layoffs and rising unemployment."

Trump imposes visa fees, and U.S. banking will turn to India Center

U.S. President Trump imposes $100,000 on new applications for the widely used H-1B visa programAfter the amazing move of the dollar, Wall Street Bank will rely more on its Indian business support center. Bank of America, including Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, are the largest employers of India’s so-called global capability centers, which are responsible for businesses ranging from transaction support, risk management to technical assistance. These centers are equipped with software engineers, quantitative analysts and accounting experts. While providing low-cost services, they also provide xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies with skilled talents that are difficult to obtain in their own market. Analysts say that while Trump tries to protect U.S. jobs by restricting immigration, the new rules could spur banks to deepen their presence in Indian tech centers such as Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad, which have already hired more than 1.9 million people.

The White House says doctors may be exempted from paying $100,000 in H1-B visa fees

The White House said on Monday that doctors may be exempt from paying $100,000 in new fees issued by the Trump administration for high-skilled H-1B visa applications. "The announcement allows for potential exemptions that may include doctors and residents," White House spokesman Taylor Rogers said in an email. The doctors xn--xm-6d1dw86k.community warned that the visa fee could cut off supplies for international medical graduates.

Federal Mousalem is skeptical of further interest rate cuts

Federal official Mousalem expressed doubts about further interest rate cuts, contrary to the general expectation of the Fed to continue to lower borrowing costs this year. Mousalem said he supported a 25 basis point cut last week because he believes the risk faced by the labor market has increased. But with inflation nearly one percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target, further rate cuts could mean excessive xn--xm-6d1dw86k.complacency with price increases. "If the public begins to doubt whether inflation can return to the 2% target, the work of restoring price stability will become more difficult and may bring higher costs to the economy." Traders' bets show that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year. In addition, his views are also contrary to the new Fed director Milan. Milan opposed a slight rate cut at a meeting last week, advocating for a larger rate cut.

Domestic News

The scale of my country's digital economy exceeds 50 trillion yuan

At present, the added value of my country's core digital economy industries accounts for about 10% of GDP, and related fields are giving birth to a number of emerging occupations, giving the employment track new vitality. In the Nanshan Museum in Shenzhen, the Dunhuang Grottoes were "moved" into the exhibition hall through virtual reality technology. The virtual reality development engineer team took half a year to research and create an immersive digital exhibition scene. This type of virtual reality development position is allowing culture and technology to collide with new possibilities; in the field of civil aviation, simulator vision system engineers help domestic flight simulators replace imported equipment, providing "digital training" for pilot training; in the animation industry, generative artificial intelligence animation producers have become new jobs, and AI tools have greatly improved the efficiency of animation production. Data shows that my country's digital economy scale exceeds 50 trillion yuan, and the game industry regulations will be carried out in 2024.The model exceeded 325.7 billion yuan. From virtual reality engineers to AI animation producers, these new professions not only enrich the digital industry ecosystem, but also broaden the breadth of employment. In the digital age, the story of "skills change life" is constantly being staged with the most trendy new version.

The demand for recruitment of algorithm engineers soared by 69%. International students have returned to China to engage in AI

From mid-September every year, autumn recruitment activities in various places have begun one after another. A highlight of this year's autumn recruitment is that the demand for talents in Internet-related positions in the AI ​​field continues to rise. In addition, more and more international students are optimistic about the industry prospects and choose to return to China to develop. Data shows that in the third quarter of this year, the demand for recruitment for artificial intelligence engineer positions increased by 25% year-on-year. Among them, the demand for recruitment of algorithm engineers, robot algorithm engineers, and deep learning engineers increased by 69%, 51%, and 7% year-on-year respectively. In terms of salary, the average monthly salary for artificial intelligence engineers is 21,370 yuan. Among them, the average monthly salary of robot algorithm engineers reached 26,971 yuan, an increase of 10% year-on-year.

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