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Traders focus on PCE data, US dollar may enter the consolidation stage

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Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "[XM Forex Market Review]: Traders focus on PCE data, and the US dollar may enter the consolidation stage." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On the Asian session on Tuesday, the US dollar index fell slightly, and traders were waiting for Powell's speech and the core PCE inflation data released on Friday to find clues to the interest rate direction. Federal Reserve official Mousalem warned that there is "limited room" for further interest rate cuts and called for caution to avoid excessive policy easing. Deutsche Bank expects PCE data to be weaker than expected, which could ease pressure from the Federal Reserve and affect U.S. dollar positions.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar: The U.S. dollar index fell slightly on Monday as traders were cautious before the release of the Fed official series of speeches and the core PCE deflator (Feder’s preferred inflation indicator) on Friday. The dollar index recorded a rise last week, thanks to strong U.S. economic data and rising U.S. Treasury yields, but bullish momentum gradually faded as interest rate expectations fluctuated. Technically, the US dollar index is testing key technical levels, which may form a bearish closing reversal top pattern. If this pattern is confirmed, it may cause the index to pull back to the 50% support level 97.021. On the upward trend, the 50-day average 98.070 and pivot resistance level 98.238 constitute strong resistance.

Euro: As the dollar suffered a heavy blow, the euro/dollar rose, hovering around 1.1800, up 0.47% intraday, market participants are waiting for clues to further easing of the Federal Reserve as this weekA series of officials will make speeches. Joachim Nager, president of the German Federal Bank and member of the European Central Bank (ECB), said the current euro valuation does not worry him. Technically, the EUR/USD remains upward bias after forming a “bullish engulfing” candlestick pattern, which means buyers are ready to drive prices up. As momentum accumulates, the slope of the relative strength index (RSI) rises in the bullish area. If RSI breaks through the latest high of 65.44, this will mean the trend is increasing. If the EUR/USD breaks through 1.1800, the first resistance level will be 1.1850, followed by the year-on-year high of 1.1918. Breakthroughs the latter will expose 1.2000. On the contrary, if it falls below 1.1750, it will open the door for further downward trend.

GBP: GBP/USD rebounded on Monday, ending a three-day decline and a technical rebound near the 50-day index moving average (EMA) as the inflow of US dollar inflows weakened in the wide market. Sterling traders will face a series of Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) surveys on Tuesday, with business expectations expected to decline slightly on both sides of the Atlantic. Technically, the latest bullish reversal of the GBP/USD pair makes the GBP expected to continue a technical rebound on the 50-day EMA near 1.3500, but the 1.3600 mark remains an important technical obstacle to recent price trends.

Summary of news from foreign exchange market

1. US tariffs drag down Australian exports. PMI output index hit a new March low in September

The latest PMI initial data shows that Australia's xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commercial activity growth slowed down at the end of the third quarter, and xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies regard the uncertainty of US trade policy as the main reason for business blockage. After the seasonal adjustment in September, the initial value of the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comprehensive PMI output index fell to 52.1, hitting a three-month low. The slowdown in output expansion is mainly due to the weakening of new order growth, partly due to the decline in export orders again. Respondents said that U.S. tariffs have had a negative impact on new overseas orders in Australia's manufacturing industry. Worries about the adverse impact of U.S. trade policy and the outlook for economic growth in August have also brought optimism to a year-on-year low. However, xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies are still continuing to recruit steadily to cope with ongoing workloads and clear up backlogs.

2. Fed Hamak warns of inflation risks and calls for cautious withdrawal of restrictive policies

Cleveland Fed Chairman Hamak said on Monday that the Fed needs to be "very cautious" when lifting restrictive monetary policy while inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target and remains stubborn. “I think we are only a short distance from neutral rates, and if this economic constraint is removed, I’m worried that it will overheat again,” Hamak, one of the most hawkish officials, hasn’t had this year.For voting rights, she did not clearly express whether she supported the rate cut last week. She stressed that inflation remains a major concern for her, and that the job market is still close to the Fed's biggest job target. Hamak expects unemployment to rise slightly this year, but will drop again soon. "In terms of inflation, we are even more likely to deviate from our target, a full percentage point away. And we have not met the standards for four and a half years in a row, and we are expected to continue to deviate in the next few years."

3. Federal Reserve Mousalem is skeptical of further interest rate cuts

Federal official Mousalem expressed doubts about further interest rate cuts, which is contrary to the view that the financial market generally expects the Federal Reserve to continue to reduce borrowing costs this year. Mousalem said he supported a 25 basis point cut last week because he believes the risk faced by the labor market has increased. But with inflation nearly one percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target, further rate cuts could mean excessive xn--xm-6d1dw86k.complacency with price increases. "If the public begins to doubt whether inflation can return to the 2% target, the work of restoring price stability will become more difficult and may bring higher costs to the economy." Traders' bets show that the Fed will cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year. In addition, his views are also contrary to the new Fed director Milan. Milan opposed a slight rate cut at a meeting last week, advocating for a larger rate cut.

4. Economist: High inflation is mainly driven by temporary factors. The Swedish central bank may cut interest rates next week. Magnus Lindskog, a senior Swedish economist, wrote that the Swedish central bank may lower its key policy interest rates on Tuesday, because the latest data confirms that high inflation is mainly driven by temporary factors, while the labor market remains sluggish. "Although high inflation and upcoming fiscal stimulus have made this decision uncertain, it seems appropriate to cut interest rates in September," he said. Lindskog added that unless there is a negative surprise, there is little indication that there will be further cuts after September.

5. Turkey cancels tariffs on imports of some U.S. products

During President Erdogan’s visit to the United States on Monday, Turkey announced through the Official Bulletin to terminate the additional tariffs on some U.S. imported goods since 2018, including passenger cars and fruits. Erdogan was scheduled to attend the UN General Assembly this week and met with U.S. President Trump on Thursday. Products covered by the previous additional tariffs include passenger cars, fruits, rice, tobacco, some alcoholic beverages, some solid fuels and some chemicals. This part of the tariffs began in 2018, aiming to retaliate against the US tariff measures taken by Trump during his first term.

Institutional View

1. JPMorgan Chase: The Bank of England may cut interest rates in December, but the probability is not high.

JPMorgan Securities analyst Monks said in a report that if UK economic growth data and inflation are significantly weaker, the Bank of England may cut interest rates in December. But the likelihood of a sharp decline in economic growth and inflation in the UK is low, reducing the likelihood of a further rate cut this year. The Bank of England is expected to cut interest rates in February and April next year, bringing the Bank of England's terminal interest rate to 3.5%.

2. Institutions: The Canadian dollar may rise due to the Federal Reserve's potential sharp rate cuts

MonexEurope said in a report that the US dollar against the Canadian dollar may fall in the medium term given that the Federal Reserve's energy will cut interest rates even sharply. "Our medium-term view remains that the Bank of Canada will cut interest rates again later this year if the labor market continues to be weak, but the dollar against the Canadian dollar may fall due to the Fed's slower and more substantial easing of monetary policy." Given the light schedule on Canada this week, exchange rates may follow broader risk sentiment and U.S. data trends.

3. Capitol Macro: Fed rate cuts are unlikely to significantly boost xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity prices

Capitol Macro climate and xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity economists wrote in a report that the Fed's recent rate cuts do not seem to have a significant impact on xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity prices. He said the boost to prices by the U.S. rate cut may be offset by other factors, and the fundamentals of the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity market appear to be generally weak. He noted that oil prices could fall from now until the end of 2026 due to slowing demand growth and increased supply from OPEC+. He said: "Another key factor is that the market has digested the degree of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which may limit additional support for xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity prices and may even become an unfavorable factor."

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CATEGORIES

News

market news

Traders focus on PCE data, US dollar may enter the consolidation stage

Analysis of major currencies

1. US tariffs drag down Australian exports. PMI output index hit a new March low in September

2. Fed Hamak warns of inflation risks and calls for cautious withdrawal of restrictive policies

3. Federal Reserve Mousalem is skeptical of further interest rate cuts

5. Turkey cancels tariffs on imports of some U.S. products

Institutional View

1. JPMorgan Chase: The Bank of England may cut interest rates in December, but the probability is not high.

2. Institutions: The Canadian dollar may rise due to the Federal Reserve's potential sharp rate cuts

3. Capitol Macro: Fed rate cuts are unlikely to significantly boost xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity prices

Related News

Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

The Most Awarded Brokerfor a Reason

Easy Access to 1,400+ Global Assets

XM Forex Trading Platform

CATEGORIES

News

market news

Traders focus on PCE data, US dollar may enter the consolidation stage

Analysis of major currencies

1. US tariffs drag down Australian exports. PMI output index hit a new March low in September

2. Fed Hamak warns of inflation risks and calls for cautious withdrawal of restrictive policies

3. Federal Reserve Mousalem is skeptical of further interest rate cuts

5. Turkey cancels tariffs on imports of some U.S. products

Institutional View

1. JPMorgan Chase: The Bank of England may cut interest rates in December, but the probability is not high.

2. Institutions: The Canadian dollar may rise due to the Federal Reserve's potential sharp rate cuts

3. Capitol Macro: Fed rate cuts are unlikely to significantly boost xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity prices

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason