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The yen is holding on to the death, the UK and the EU are "stopping" and the US dollar index will not fall?

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM official website]: The yen will hold on, the UK and the EU will "hold back", and the US dollar index will not fall?". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

The current core logic of the global foreign exchange market revolves around the monetary policy differentiation of major central banks. After the Federal Reserve restarted the easing cycle last week, intensive speeches by officials this week will further anchor the interest rate outlook. The differences in policy orientations such as the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the European Central Bank are continuing to be transmitted to the US dollar index through the rise and fall of the local currency, forming a rebound trend of the US dollar in uncertainty.

The Federal Reserve's easing has begun but there are significant differences, and the US dollar index has been supported by "policy replacement". As the "anchor" of global monetary policy, the Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points as scheduled last week. Although it fulfilled the market's expectations that the market had fully priced, it failed to give a clear direction in forward-looking policy guidance.

The members of the Federal Open Market xn--xm-6d1dw86k.committee (FOMC) have significant differences over the dual dilemma of "weaker in the labor market" and "exceed inflation target". Seven of the 19 members opposed another interest rate cut this year, and two only supported a single interest rate cut. New director Stephen Milan is the only one who advocates a "large rate cut of 50 basis points". His speech this week will become the key to the market's analysis of the independence of the Federal Reserve and its degree of radical policy.

This state of "looseness but vague path" has caused the US dollar index to rebound quickly after a brief sharp drop after interest rate cuts: on the one hand, the Federal Reserve is currently in the "policy replenishment" stage and needs to catch up with central banks such as the Bank of Canada that have started easing earlier. The policy lag has weakened the short-term depreciation pressure of the US dollar.

On the other hand, deep differences within FOMC have boosted market risk aversion sentiment, and funds have returned to US dollar assets in the short term. Federal Bank of Australia pointed out that 10 Federal Reserve officials, including Powell, spoke "highly likely to stir up the foreign exchange market". If the signal is released on hawkish (such as emphasizing inflation stickiness), the US dollar index may enter in the short term.One step rebound.

But long-term, with the determination of countries to transfer reserve currencies from the US dollar, the authenticity of the US internal economic data and the independence of the Federal Reserve have been questioned, and the deterioration of US employment and inflation, the US dollar is still facing great upward pressure in the long run.

Bank of England: Policy dilemma suppresses the pound, indirectly boosting the dollar index

Bank of England chose to maintain the key interest rate of 4% last week, but its policy makers fell into obvious difficulties in "balancing economic growth and inflation control": the scale of domestic public sector lending has risen sharply, coupled with the double drag of "high inflation stickiness" and "sluggish economic growth", the pound continued to be under pressure, and the Asian market fell to $1.3452 in the early trading on Monday (two-week low).

Although Rabobank has postponed the Bank of England's next rate cut to 2026, the bank emphasized that "mostly the rate cut expectations have been reflected in the exchange rate, and pound investors are more concerned about weak fiscal fundamentals", and most judged that the pound will still be under pressure this fall and longer cycle.

As an important corresponding currency of the US dollar index, the weakening of the pound directly provides support for the US dollar index and has become one of the important driving forces of the recent US dollar rebound. In addition, the Bank of England plans to reduce the annual quantitative tightening (QT) scale from 100 billion pounds to 70 billion pounds (QT is the sale of Treasury bonds to tighten liquidity to curb the rise in Treasury bond yields), but the scale of active cash selling has increased to 21 billion pounds. The contradiction between policy tools further weakens the confidence of the pound and strengthens the relative advantage of the US dollar in the short term.

But in the face of more serious inflation problems, the UK still finds it difficult to choose the same loose path as the United States.

Bank of Japan hawkish signals are inconsistent with interest rate stability, and the yen surrenders gains support the US dollar

Bank of Japan last week maintained the 0.5% interest rate unchanged in a significant vote (two votes opposed, the largest number of votes since President Ueda took office), but simultaneously announced the launch of the sell-off operation of exchange-traded funds (ETFs, with a market value of about US$4.2 billion) and real estate investment trusts (REITs), releasing hawkish signals of normalization of monetary policy. The sale of assets to tighten liquidity has previously pushed the yen to temporarily strengthen.

However, the US dollar against the Japanese yen exchange rate continued to rebound on Friday's basis on Monday, rising 0.27% to 148.37. The core reason is the contradiction between "hawkish expectations and actual policies lag" - although the market expects the central bank to raise interest rates before the end of the year, the current decision to keep interest rates unchanged still makes the yen lack the momentum to continue rising. As a constituent currency of the US dollar index, the yen directly supports the US dollar index.

But given Japan's tightening monetary policy of selling assets to recover currencies and fiscal policy of hikes, coupled with Japan's strong economic data (government has been significantly revised up in the second quarter), it has jointly supported the long-term trend of the yen exchange rate.

The ECB cut interest rates and easing expectations suppressed European currencies, helping the dollar rebound

The ECB maintained key refinancing rates at 2% on September 11 (relativelyThe level was cut in half last year), although interest rates have remained unchanged since June, the market generally expects it to lower interest rates again before the end of this year. This expectation directly suppressed the euro trend, and the euro continued to fall to 1.1730 against the dollar on Monday. Since the euro accounts for more than 50% of the weight of the US dollar index, the weakening of the euro has become one of the core driving forces for the recent rise in the US dollar index.

But the European Central Bank's overall opposite to the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and the relatively strong economic data in the euro zone, it will support the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar in the long run.

Bank of Canada: Radical easing is xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compared with the Federal Reserve, the Canadian dollar is under pressure

Bank of Canada simultaneously cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week. As the major central bank that launched monetary policy easing earlier and more radical, its policy orientation is in contrast to the Federal Reserve's "policy replacement". Judging from the logic of monetary easing, the Bank of Canada's earlier easing actions are likely to cause pressure on the Canadian dollar (the Canadian dollar is a currency in the US dollar index), further providing support for the rebound of the US dollar index and also confirming the advantages of the US dollar over other loose currencies under the Fed's "catching-up easing".

But in the long run, Canada has opened a cycle of interest rate cuts ahead of schedule, and there is no room for interest rate cuts. As the Federal Reserve's interest rate shifts to Canada's own interest rate cycle, it is only a matter of time before the interest rate gap between the United States and Canada is narrowing.

The short-term trend of the US dollar index: disturbances in various countries support the short-term strengthening of the US dollar

From the current market structure, the rebound of the US dollar index is a xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comprehensive result of the policy differentiation of major central banks and expectations of fundamental changes in various countries: the easing expectations of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada (or have been implemented to be loose) suppress their own euros and Canadian dollars; the policy difficulties of the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan have caused doubts in fundamentals to weaken the pound and yen; and the Federal Reserve's own "easing has been opened but significant differences" provide short-term safe-haven support for the US dollar.

Dollar outlook, the US dollar index will not change its downward trend

Intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials will become a key catalyst for the US dollar index. If officials collectively emphasize that "inflation still needs to be controlled" (weakening expectations of aggressive interest rate cuts), the US dollar index may break through the 98 mark;

If the views of dovish officials such as Milan dominate, it may suppress the US dollar's gains.

But in the long run, despite the recent continued rebound of the US dollar, the market generally believes that the global monetary easing cycle led by the Federal Reserve has brought trading opportunities to the global non-US markets. The trend of the US dollar index will still be a direct reflection of the policy game between central banks. xn--xm-6d1dw86k.combined with the long-term currency fundamentals of the euro, yen, pound, etc., which mainly constitute the long-term currency fundamentals of currencies, if the US neutral interest rate (3.25%-3.75%) is gradually implemented in 2026, the US dollar index may continue to decline, thus bringing more trading opportunities.

The US dollar index is suppressed by the upper edge of the box and cannot enter the upper half of the box at present. At the same time, MACD and KDJ show that the US dollar index is still under the control of the bears. If the US dollar index wants to break the downward trend, it does not need to break through the upper box and the neckline of the head and shoulders top pattern, it is around 98.50.

As of press time, the pound turned from a decline to a rise of 0.19 to 1.3482, the euro fell to a bottom and rebounded to a rise of 0.29% to 1.1775, the US dollar turned from a rise to a fall of 147.89 (-0.05%), and the US dollar index rose from a rise to a fall of 0.2% to a fall of 0.2%.

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