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The risk of U.S. government shutdown rises sharply, gold hits a record high

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Market Analysis]: The risk of the US government shutdown has increased sharply, and gold hits a new record high." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday, September 24, spot gold trading was around $3,767.60/ounce, and gold prices hit a new record high of $3,790.97/ounce on Tuesday. Driven by geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, safe-haven funds flowed into the gold market; U.S. crude oil trading was around $63.77/barrel, and oil prices rose more than 2% on Tuesday, as negotiations on resuming oil exports in Iraq were blocked, alleviating some investors' concerns about global oversupply.

The dollar remained stable against major currencies on Tuesday, with investors evaluating speeches from Fed officials, including Chairman Powell. The Swedish Krone rose after the Swedish central bank cuts a 25 basis point hawkish rate.

Powell said at an event in Rhode Island that the Fed still needs to balance the risks of high inflation and weak job markets in future interest rate decisions. His remarks continued the wording of the Fed's 25 basis points cut last week.

Federal Vice Chairman of Financial Regulation Michelle Bowman said earlier Tuesday that the Fed may be too slow to support the job market, and that if demand worsens and xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies start laying off employees, it may need to speed up interest rate cuts.

St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and Federal Reserve Director Stephen Miran also delivered speeches on Monday.

Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structural products at Moneycorp in New Jersey, said Powell basically reiterated his tone after last week's resolution, and the question has been whether his dovish stance meets market expectations. I don't think it's fully achievedTo expectations…but anyway, the tone remains a concern about the job market. This is also the reason why the US dollar has not seen a significant decline. The US dollar index remained stable at 97.25.

Vassili Serebriakov, a foreign exchange strategist at UBS in New York, said that the US dollar has stabilized after the Fed's interest rate cut, but the strength of gold in the current environment is even more eye-catching.

CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that the market currently expects the possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in October is close to 90%, slightly lower than the 92% the day before. This week's U.S. Congress' temporary funding negotiations to avoid the government's shutdown on September 30 also exacerbated market tensions.

Asian Market

The Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% in the year to August, the latest data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Wednesday showed that the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% in the year to August.

New Zealand Finance Minister Willis appointed Anna Breman as the new president of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) on Wednesday. Blaman has been in office for five years and she will begin her new position on December 1.

European Markets

Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill said in a speech that he had a mild tone of inflation risks, in which he said he was "more xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comfortable now" than he was six to twelve months ago. Although he had previously emphasized that the balance of risks is more about inflation, he acknowledged that risks are changing over time and market repricing.

Pierre has been one of the more hawkish members of the Monetary Policy xn--xm-6d1dw86k.committee, opposing last week's decision to slow down the pace of quantitative austerity. The bank will now reduce its UK Treasury holdings by £70 billion in the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming year from £100 billion last year, but Pill boycotted the move.

He explained his preference for “continuity and consistency” of quantitative austerity, believing that the framework works best when bank interest rates become a positive tool for policy adjustments. With interest rates far from the lower limit, the monetary policy xn--xm-6d1dw86k.committee has the flexibility to use bank interest rates to achieve its inflation targets, while quantitative tightening runs in the backstage.

The UK's business activity weakened significantly in September, and the initial value of the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comprehensive purchasing managers index fell from 53.5 to 51.0, a four-month low. The manufacturing industry further shrank from 47.0 to 46.2. The service industry fell from 54.2 to 51.9, indicating that various industries generally lost momentum.

S&P Global's Chris Williamson described the report as "a string of worrying news" citing declines in overseas trade, deteriorating confidence and massive unemployment. The survey showed that about 50,000 jobs were laid off in the past three months, stressing that the economy was "almost stagnant."

The only highlight is the weak price pressure, with businesses reporting that goods and services price increases are one of the smallest since the pandemic. For the Central EnglandFor the boss, weak growth, slowing inflation and rising unemployment may turn the debate back to a "more dovish stance" in the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming months.

The initial value of the Purchasing Managers Index in the euro zone in September was mixed, with manufacturing falling back into contraction, while the service sector drove growth. The manufacturing index fell from 50.7 to 49.5, but the service index rose from 50.5 to 51.4, a nine-month high, and the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comprehensive purchasing managers index rose from 51.0 to 51.2, the strongest in 16 months.

Cyrus dela Rubia of Hamburg xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commercial Bank said the group is “still on the road to growth” but is far from gaining “any real momentum.” Germany's recovery performed well, with manufacturing falling from 59.8 to 48.5, but the service industry jumped to 52.5, pushing its xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comprehensive purchasing managers index from 50.5 to 52.4 (a 16-month high). French stock market lagged behind, with both manufacturing and service industries falling below 50, with a xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comprehensive index of 48.4, down from 49.8, hitting a five-month low.

DelaRubia warned that French political uncertainty disrupted production plans, while both Germany and France saw a sharp decline in order volumes. Now, recruitment across the EU has "stopped", the service industry creates slow employment opportunities, and the manufacturing industry suffers even greater losses. Confidence in output growth has declined.

In terms of inflation, the cost pressure in the service industry has "slightly alleviated", but it remains high, and the selling price has "cooled more significantly." This xn--xm-6d1dw86k.combination may give the ECB a reason to consider whether the rate cut will be back on the table by the end of the year.

U.S. market

U.S. business activity was weak in September, with the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comprehensive PMI falling from 54.6 to 53.6. The manufacturing industry fell from 53.0 to 52.0, while the service industry fell from 54.5 to 53.9. Despite the slowdown, the survey still shows that the economy expanded steadily at an annualized rate of 2.2% in the third quarter.

S&P Global's Chris Williamson pointed out that since its peak in July, growth has cooled down and hiring momentum has weakened. Businesses reported weak demand conditions, limiting their ability to raise prices.

Tariffs continue to push up input costs in manufacturing and services, but fewer xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies can pass on these costs, suggesting “profit margins are squeezed but heralds a slowdown in inflation.”

The survey shows that consumer inflation will still be higher than the Fed's 2% target in the near term, although signs of manufacturing inventory accumulation may further curb future price pressures.

Feder Chairman Jerome Powell spoke overnight, saying that supply and demand in the U.S. labor market have seen a "significant slowdown" in the country, calling it an unusual and challenging development. He noted that while other indicators such as job openings and applicants remain largely stable, jobs created now appear to be lower than the “break-even” rate needed to keep the unemployment rate stable.

In terms of inflation, AbaloneWill stressed that recent price pressures are driven primarily by tariffs rather than evidence of widespread overheating. Deflation in the service sector, including housing, continues, with most long-term inflation expectations still centering around the Fed's 2% target. Recent expectations for tariff headlines have risen slightly, but Powell believes the effects may be temporary.

He described the tariff shock as a “one-time change in price levels” that will be “distributed in several quarters” as supply chains absorb higher costs.

Powell reiterated that Fed policy is “not on the preset route.” Decisions will continue to depend on upcoming data and risk balances, with the Federal Open Market xn--xm-6d1dw86k.committee seeking to manage slower employment growth and temporary inflation associated with tariffs without overreaction.

Chicago Fed Chairman Ostan Goulsby said that if the risk of stagflation subsides, he believes that interest rates have room for a “quite drastically” decline over time, although the adjustment should be “gradual.” In an interview with xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comBC, he said that neutral interest rates are 4.00-4.25 basis points lower than the current range of 100-125%, which means that the long-term policy level is about 3%.

Gulsby stressed that inflation risks still exist, noting that price growth has been above target for more than four years. He warned that while people's confidence that inflation can fall back to 2% continues to grow, don't be "too aggressive" in rate cuts.

At the same time, he stressed that the labor market is cooling at a "moderate to moderate" rate, providing room for cautious policy adjustments.

Federal Governor Michelle Bowman said in a speech that she welcomed the Fed's decision to start easing last week and pointed out that the risk balance between inflation and employment has changed. She said tariffs no longer seem likely to bring about a sustained inflationary shock, which reduces the upside risk of stable prices.

As demand weakened and labor market conditions became vulnerable, Bowman stressed that the Fed must focus on its employment tasks. She cites benchmark wage adjustments as a clear warning, saying the Fed "faces serious risks of already lagging behind" in addressing the deterioration of the job market.

She believes the Fed should “preemptively stabilize and support labor market conditions.” If the current situation continues, “we will need to adjust policies faster and greater in the future.

In addition, Bowman warns against a strict, backward explanation of data dependence, saying that if the Fed now postpones action, it may force the Fed to implement "sudden and dramatic policy actions" later. Instead, Bowman urges a more "proactive forward-looking approach" framework that can consider how the economy might develop rather than rely solely on the latest data points.

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