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New York's "hidden beasts still fight", missed in front of the goal of 0.60, and fought back with 0.58
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The New York dollar "is still fighting", 0.60 missed in front of the goal, and 0.58 fighting against the water". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (September 23), the New York dollar against the US dollar (NZD/USD) performed the "inclusive day" in the volatile market, pulling back from a low of 0.5845 during the session, but the North American period still hovered around the 0.5860 line. The market is generally cautious, weighing the latest statements of the US PMI in early September with several Fed officials. The upward action of the New York dollar is suppressed, and the defensive chips below have not loosened.
Basics:
Today's fluctuations are mainly about waiting and watching. In the United States, the market focused on the economic outlook speech of PMI and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell in the early morning of the September 21:45 that night, looking for clues to follow-up policy paths. The current consensus believes that US manufacturing and service activities may slow down xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compared with the previous value, but are still in the "moderate expansion" range; at the same time, the market is worried that the impact of tariffs will gradually spread to the real economy, and sensitive funds choose to reduce noise in the short term.
Last week, Powell emphasized that this move is a "risk management" - while inflation is still above the target, preventing the downward risk of weakening employment. He also pointed out that the Fed's risk assessment of the "dual mission" is more balanced: the fragility on the employment side is rising, while the concerns about inflation stickiness are relatively eased; the path is "non-preset", and the subsequent rhythm still depends on the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.combination changes of inflation, labor and external risks.
The initial PMI values of Europe and the UK provide a xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comparison of the US dollar for the New York dollar: France's manufacturing industry 48.1 (expected 50.2, previous value 50.4), service industry 48.9 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8); Germany's manufacturing industry 48.5 (expected 50.0, previous value 48.8), service industry 52.5 (expected 49.5, previous value 49.3); Eurozone manufacturing industry summary is 49.5 (expected/previous value 50.7), and service industry summary is 51.4 (expected 50.6, previous value 50.5). The UK manufacturing industry is 46.2 (expected 47.1, previous value 47.0), and the service industry is 51.9 (expected 53.4, previous value 54.2). Overall, the manufacturing industry is below 50 in total and generally below expectations, while the service industry is differentiated - the euro zone and Germany return/maintain expansion, but France and the UK cool down significantly.
New Zealand domestic factors constitute a continuous headwind for the New Zealand dollar: the GDP contraction in the second quarter announced last week was greater than expected, and the trade deficit expanded, triggering the market's additional pricing of the New Zealand Federal Reserve's subsequent interest rate cuts, which has continuously limited the upward attempts of the New Zealand dollar. In conjunction with tonight's "Information Storm", the exchange rate has entered a critical moment of "data-setting direction".
Technical aspect:
Daily chart shows that the middle rail of the Bollinger band is 0.5892, the upper rail is 0.5989, and the lower rail is 0.5796. The exchange rate is currently located below the middle track and above the lower track, and is in the lower half of the belt, reflecting that the short-term trend is still a "downward oscillation". 0.6000 above is a significant psychological barrier, forming the first resistance; 0.6119 above is a phased high point, corresponding to a stronger historical selling pressure zone. The lower support falls in the "narrow zone resonance" between the Bollinger lower rail 0.5796 and the nearest low point 0.5799. If it falls below, the Bollinger band may shift from "flattening" to "diffusion down", triggering a new round of decline.
In terms of kinetic energy indicators, the DIFF of MACD (26, 12, 9) is -0.0006, close to the bottom of the zero axis, the signal line and the bar chart are falling and converging, indicating insufficient upward momentum and a risk of secondary weakening in the short term; RSI (14) is 42.4371, located below 50 but far from oversold, a typical "weak oscillation" reading.
At the K-line level, entities have been relatively converged in the past two days, which is in line with the oscillating characteristics of "inner-inclusive daily/mother-son line": an upward breakthrough needs to effectively recover 0.5892 and advance to the range of 0.5989-0.6000; if it falls below, it is concerned about whether the intraday backtest of 0.5845 is lost again. If it falls, the range of 0.5796-0.5799 will become the key defensive position. Overall, the technical side gives a clear three-stage frame - 0.5796/0.5799 (defense) - 0.5892 (pivot axis) - 0.5989/0.6000 (resistance). The short-term direction is more likely to be clearer when the price passes.
Future Outlook:
Short-term Scenario:
1) If the US PMI is less than expected and Powell's tone is biased towards "risk management" and flexible response, the US dollar will weaken marginally, and the New York dollar is expected to hit Bollinger's middle track 0.5892 again and launch a backtest on 0.5989-0.6000. If there is a large volume of long positive and closes above 0.6000, the technical structure may shift from "weak oscillation" to "breakthrough on the upper edge of the box", pay attention to the acceleration trigger point of 0.6006 above, and thenVerification is made to observe whether the historical selling pressure band of 0.6119 produces "resistance to support".
2) On the contrary, if PMI resilience exceeds expectations and Powell emphasizes the prudent trade-off between inflation stickiness and employment, the US dollar and US Treasury yields stabilize simultaneously, the New York dollar may fall back to 0.5845 and test the key buffer zones of 0.5796-0.5799. If the negative line of the physical body above medium and above effectively falls below and is accompanied by the expansion of volatility, the daily trend will turn into a "fall back with the trend", the Bollinger lower track opens a downward channel, and the short-term risk tilts downward.
Middle-line perspective:
The expectation of a rate cut by the New Zealand Federal Reserve and weak domestic fundamentals are "slow variables" that suppress the New Zealand dollar risk premium; but after the US cycle entered a "rebalancing from suppressing inflation to maintaining employment", the US dollar's "high interest rate spread moat" weakened marginally. Under the hedging of the two, the mid-term driver of the New York dollar/USD relies more on the "difference" of relative to monetary policy. If the US data continues to weaken and the New Zealand Fed chooses to be "cautious but not overly loose", there is room for the New Zealand dollar to "return from valuation discount"; if the US resilience maintains and New Zealand's growth recurs, the exchange rate may remain.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The New York dollar "has a trapped beast still fighting", 0.60 missed the game in front of the door, 0.58 fighting against the water". It was carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the XM Foreign Exchange editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!
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