Trusted by over 15 Million Traders
The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason
CATEGORIES
News
- 【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Forex Signal: Rebounds as Trump Takes Charge
- 【XM Forex】--EUR/USD Monthly Forecast: January 2025
- 【XM Group】--BTC/USD Forex Signal: Major Bearish Breakdown in View
- 【XM Group】--Dax Forecast: DAX Continues to Find Buyers on Dips in Bullish Run
- 【XM Forex】--USD/BRL Analysis: Higher Range as Brazil’s Nervous Sentiment Deepens
market news
Differentiated Europe, swinging US dollar, who will dominate the ups and downs of the euro?
Wonderful introduction:
Optimism is the line of egrets that are straight up to the blue sky, optimism is the thousands of white sails beside the sunken boat, optimism is the lush grass that blows with the wind on the head of the parrot island, optimism is the falling red spots that turn into spring mud to protect the flowers.
Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: Divided Europe, swinging US dollars, and the long and short euros who are the ups and downs." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Tuesday (September 23), the euro rebounded against the US dollar after gaining support at the 1.1780 line, and trading around 1.18 during the European period. Business activity data released by Europe show that the euro zone service industry strengthened while manufacturing industry fell, providing a certain support for the euro; but before the US MarkitPMI preview value and Fed Chairman Powell's speech in September was released, volatility was still restrained and the market chose to wait and see.
Brands
Eurozone: Kinetic energy differentiation
The initial value of the Eurozone service industry PMI rose to 51.4 (expected 50.5), while the manufacturing industry PMI fell from 50.7 to 49.5 (expected 50.9), and structural differentiation intensified. Germany continued the same characteristics: manufacturing fell to 48.5 (expected 50.0), but services rose to 52.5 (previous value of 49.3). France was even weaker, with manufacturing falling to 48.1 (expected 50.2), and the service industry further falling from 49.8 to 48.9, highlighting the pressure on the economy.
Meaning: The euro zone is still on the brink of moderate expansion overall, and internalization suppresses the trend intensity, but the resilience of the service industry has cooled down the narrative of "deep recession" and is conducive to the euro getting buying at a low level.
U.S.: Pay attention to short-cycle data and forward-looking xn--xm-6d1dw86k.communication
The United States will announce September manufacturing PMI (expected 52, previous value 53) and service industry PMI (expected 53.9, previous value 54.5) during the North American period today. The PCE price index will also be launched on Friday. Before the data, the dollar weakened: On the one hand, director Stephen Miran expressed a relatively dovish view, saying that under the influence of changes in immigration, tax burden and tariff income, neutral interest rates should be lower, and the current policy may be tight; on the other hand, St. Louis andThe Cleveland Fed is still worried about inflation and tends to be cautious.
Meaning: Differences between Federal Reserve officials and short-term data may fall, limiting the US dollar's upward movement. But if the PMI and Powell's caliber are stronger than expected, the short term may still reverse the dollar's weakness.
Risk points and transmission paths
The market will test the resilience of the US economy in the context of a high tariff environment in the near future; if US demand cools significantly, the advantage of the US dollar interest rate spread converges → the US dollar pulls back → the euro rises against the US dollar; on the contrary, if the US service industry maintains a high prosperity and is accompanied by sticky inflation, the expectation of interest rate cuts will be delayed → the US dollar rebound → the euro is under pressure against the US dollar.
Technical aspect:
Daily chart shows:
1) Bollinger band is slightly opened, upper rail 1.1846/mid rail 1.1710/lower rail 1.1573. After rebounding from the low point of 1.1391, the exchange rate surged to 1.1918 in September, and then retreated and restarted above the middle track. Currently, it is 1.1805, and there is still about 40 points of space from the upper track. The upper track forms the first resistance to the short-term.
2) In terms of MACD, DIFF0.0039 and DEA0.0033, the bar chart maintains a slightly positive value, indicating that the bulls have a moderate momentum and has not yet entered the trend-based increase in volume.
3) RSI (14) is about 57.6, which is in the neutral and strong range, and the bulls dominate but have not overheated; if the RSI continues to advance to 60-65 and is amplified by the physical positive line, it will increase the probability of an upward breakthrough of 1.1846.
4) Interpretation of key positions and patterns:
Resistance level: 1.1846 (Bolling's upper rail, if it effectively breaks up and stands firm, the exchange rate may back-test the high point of 1.1918); above is 1.1918 (September high), which is a strong resistance in stages.
Support level: 1.1800 is the psychological barrier and short-term pivot; below is 1.1710 (Bolling middle rail/dynamic support), then look at 1.1573 (Bolling lower rail).
Model level: The prototype of the upward channel since 1.1391 is still there; the retracement has not fallen below the middle track in the past two weeks, and the rhythm of backtesting-pulling is clearer. If the positive line entity moves along the upper track next, it will point to the trend acceleration; on the contrary, if it falls below 1.1710 and closes below the middle track, the trend will turn into a box oscillation or even a short-term reversal.
Prevention of Market Sentiment
Emotional Structure: Currently belongs to "prudent bull market sentiment". The euro's positive for the resilience of the service industry, but weak French output and uncertain US data have suppressed their willingness to chase the rise.
Risk Preference and Narrative: If Powell provides clearer forward guidance and is interpreted as "policies are not in a hurry to be easing again", the US dollar may boost in stages; but if the speech guides the expectation of "economic slowdown and policy can be turned", the euro will benefit from the decline of the US dollar. In short, the narrative has not yet been condensed into a single consensus, which is why the Bollinger bands only open their mouths gently and the RSI has not overheated.
The above content is about "【XM Forex】: Differentiated Europe, the swaying US dollar, the long and short euro, who is the ups and downs?” is carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thank you for your support!
In fact, responsibility is not helpless, not boring, it is as gorgeous as a rainbow. It is this colorful responsibility that has created a better life today. I will work hard to organize the article.
Disclaimers: XM Group only provides execution services and access permissions for online trading platforms, and allows individuals to view and/or use the website or the content provided on the website, but has no intention of making any changes or extensions, nor will it change or extend its services and access permissions. All access and usage permissions will be subject to the following terms and conditions: (i) Terms and conditions; (ii) Risk warning; And (iii) a complete disclaimer. Please note that all information provided on the website is for general informational purposes only. In addition, the content of all XM online trading platforms does not constitute, and cannot be used for any unauthorized financial market trading invitations and/or invitations. Financial market transactions pose significant risks to your investment capital.
All materials published on online trading platforms are only intended for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered for financial, investment tax, or trading related consulting and advice, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related trading offers or invitations.
All content provided by XM and third-party suppliers on this website, including opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, other information, and third-party website links, remains unchanged and is provided as general market commentary rather than investment advice. All materials published on online trading platforms are only for educational/informational purposes and do not include or should be considered as applicable to financial, investment tax, or trading related advice and recommendations, or transaction price records, or any financial product or non invitation related financial offers or invitations. Please ensure that you have read and fully understood the information on XM's non independent investment research tips and risk warnings. For more details, please click here