U.S. imposes 15% tariff on EU cars, dollar strengthens gold prices fall, oil prices hit seven-week high

Basic news

On Thursday (September 25, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around $3,740.71/ounce, and gold prices fell on Wednesday due to the strengthening of the US dollar. Investors are waiting for the economic data to be released later this week to find further clues about the Fed's policy path; U.S. crude oil trading was around $64.71/barrel, and oil prices rose nearly 2% on Wednesday, hitting a seven-week high. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week, coupled with the obstacles in exports from Iraq, Venezuela and Russia, and the market's concerns about tightening supply increased.

Focus on this day

FOMC Permanent Voting xn--xm-6d1dw86k.committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams delivered a welcome speech at the fourth annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar, and Fed Schmid and Goulsby delivered speeches.

Stock Market

U.S. stocks closed lower for the second consecutive trading day on Wednesday, as major stock indexes approached record highs and investors chose to take profits. Previously, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned that the stock price might be high. The market is also waiting for inflation data to be released later this week.

Investors are trying to judge the Fed's future path to rate cuts. The Fed is currently trying to support the U.S. economy without triggering a new round of inflation as the job market shows signs of weakness.

Earlier this week, the three major indexes and the small-cap Russell 2000 index hit record closing highs at the same time, for the first time in several years. Powell said Tuesday that asset prices "look high." He stressed that the Fed needs to weigh cautiously in future interest rate decisions, and that its colleagues have different views on the policy prospects. Some analysts believe Powell's remarks are confusingThinking of what former Federal Reserve Chairman Greenspan called an "irrational prosperity" in 1996 that pushed up asset prices.

The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, boosting the normally weak September stock market. Investors are currently betting that the Fed will further relax its policies in the future.

LNW Chief Investment Officer in Philadelphia, Ron Albahary, said that the current P/E ratio of the S&P 500 is 23 to 24 times, reflecting the market's expected annual earnings growth of about 15% in the next five years. This sounds like the valuation is indeed high. We are not judging the market timing, but I think it is reasonable for people to reduce their positions by using Powell's remarks. ”

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.37% to 46,121.28 points; the S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 6,637.98 points; the Nasdaq fell 0.33% to 22,497.86 points.

Some stock valuation indicators have risen to the highest level since 2021, and if they continue to climb, they will hit the highs during the Internet bubble period. The S&P 500 Materials sector fell 1.6%, the worst performing sector.

On the other hand, the S&P 500 Energy sector rose 1.2%, the best performing sector, and the oil Prices have driven. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell, pushing oil prices to a seven-week high. Data released on Wednesday showed that U.S. new single-family home sales surged by 20.5% in August. In terms of individual stocks, Lithium Americas' shares nearly doubled to close at $6.01. It was reported that the Trump administration is seeking to hold up to 10% of the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.company's equity. Micron Technology closed down 2.8% after reporting quarterly results. Oracle fell 1.7% after reports that the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.company plans to issue $15 billion in corporate bonds. p>

Investors will turn to the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index data released later this week, a inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve.

Gold market

Gold prices fell on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened, falling from a record high set in the previous trading day, while investors waited for economic data to be released later this week to look for further clues about the Fed's policy path.

Spot gold fell 0.8% to $3,734.58 per ounce, and U.S. futures for December delivery closed down 1.2% to $3,768.1 . The 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose. Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Futures, said gold is still digesting some of the Fed’s xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comments and geopolitical tensions with Russia, and the market is slightly cautious until some economic data is released.

Fed Chairman Powell did not provide new clues on future interest rates on Tuesday, stressing that the Fed must be cautious in balancing the risks between stubborn inflation and a slowdown in the job market.

According to the CMEFedWatch tool, the market is expected to be this yearAnother 25 basis points cut, the probability of a rate cut in October is 94%, and the probability of a rate cut in December is 77%.

The current focus is Thursday’s weekly U.S. initial jobless claims data and the U.S. personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index released on Friday, the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator.

In terms of geopolitics, the Ukrainian military said on Wednesday that it attacked two oil pump stations in Russia's Volgograd region at night. In times of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, safe-haven gold is more attractive.

Spot silver fell 0.4% to $43.84 an ounce. Platinum fell 0.7% to $1,468.44; palladium fell 0.7% to $1,211.45. Oil market

Oil prices climbed nearly 2% on Wednesday, hitting their seven-week highs. U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell last week, coupled with the obstacles in exports from Iraq, Venezuela and Russia, and market concerns about tighter supply increased.

Brent crude oil futures rose 2.5%, with a settlement price of $69.31 per barrel; U.S. crude oil futures rose 2.5%, with a settlement price of $64.99. Brent crude oil hit its highest closing level since August 1, and U.S. crude oil hit its highest closing level since September 2. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell by 607,000 barrels last week.

The survey showed that analysts had previously predicted that U.S. crude oil inventories would increase by 235,000 barrels. Market sources quoted data from the American Petroleum Association (API) on Tuesday that crude oil inventories fell by 3.8 million barrels last week.

John Kilduff, partner at AgainCapital, said, "Given the report that inventory has fallen across the board, the report has been supporting to some extent," referring to the EIA report showing that crude oil, distillate and gasoline stocks have all decreased.

The Ukrainian military attacked two oil pump stations in Russia's Volgograd region overnight, and the news also provided support for oil prices. Russia's Novorossiysk city has declared a state of emergency, which is Russia's main seaport in the Black Sea and has major oil and grain export terminals.

The Dallas Fed said on Wednesday that oil and gas production and activity in the major U.S. oil- and gas production and activity in Texas, Louisiana and New Mexico decreased slightly in the third quarter of 2025.

Iranian oil minister Mohsen Paknejad said there will be no "new heavy restrictions" on Iranian oil sales. Tehran and European powers are currently working to reach an agreement to avoid the UN's resumption of sanctions on Iran this week.

Chevron restricts oil exports from Venezuela due to U.S. license issues, exacerbates short-term bullish sentiment in the market.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar rose against the yen, Swiss franc and euro on Wednesday after Fed Chairman Powell was cautious about further easing. The dollar rose 0.54% to 0.795, ending two consecutive exchangesYi Ri's decline. The euro fell against the dollar after Germany's corporate prosperity index unexpectedly declined in September. After gains over the past two trading days, the euro fell 0.69% against the U.S. dollar to $1.1734 late in trading. The pound fell 0.58% to $1.3443. The pound remained stable against the euro at 0.8727 pounds. "The dollar is generally slightly firmer against most G10 currencies, but is still in volatility and range volatility. According to our capital flows and holdings data, the dollar is still in a significant low-level state among large groups of medium and long-term investors, so I think it is in a consolidation period, which is what is happening right now."

Powell maintained a cautious tone on Tuesday, saying that the Fed still needs to weigh risks between high inflation and weak job markets in future interest rate decisions. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the remaining two meetings of the year and to lower it again in the first quarter of 2026, an expectation consistent with the Federal Reserve's guidance after last week's meeting.

U.S. economic data will be the focus of attention this week, especially the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index to be released on Friday, which is a key indicator that affects the market's expectations for the Fed's next policy.

Loh added: "We are still evaluating the Fed's movements point by point based on the data, which will serve as a catalyst for interest rates and the U.S. dollar, which determines whether the market believes the Fed will be more radical or hawkish."

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the U.S. dollar, rose 0.65% to 97.87 against six major currencies, attempted to recover lost ground after two consecutive days of declines.

The candidate who ran for the next president of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party answered a reporter's question on Wednesday. Sanae Takaichi, one of the leaders and is known for his dovish fiscal and monetary policy, said monetary policy is decided by the Bank of Japan, but higher interest rates may affect mortgage rates and corporate investment.

The dollar rose 0.83% against the yen to 148.85 yen, the highest point in three weeks and will end the decline for three consecutive trading days.

New Zealand Finance Minister Nicola Willis announced on Wednesday that Anna Breman was appointed as the new chairman of the New Zealand Federal Reserve, becoming the bank's first female chairman. Breman, currently the first deputy governor of the Swedish central bank, will take office on December 1. After that, the New York dollar fell 0.79% to $0.581.

The Australian dollar fell 0.29% to $0.658 against the US dollar. The previously announced Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August rose 3% xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compared with the same period last year, up from 2.8% in July and slightly above the median forecast of 2.9%. The next policy meeting of the RBA is less than a week away.

International News

The United States officially announces: The United States imposes 15% tariff on EU cars

On September 24 local time, the Trump administration of the United States issued a formal announcement to implement the trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union, confirming that from August 1, a 15% tariff on EU imported cars and automobile products will be imposed. In addition, the document also lists tariff exemptions for certain drug xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compounds, aircraft parts and other imported goods. On July 27, local time, US President Trump said that the United States has reached a new trade agreement with the EU and imposes a 15% tariff on EU goods imported to the US. European xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commission President von der Leyen said the 15% tax rate is the best result the European xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commission can achieve.

U.S. Energy Secretary: The United States is ready to replace all Russian oil and gas imported from Europe

U.S. Energy Secretary Wright said that the United States is "ready to replace all Russian natural gas and oil products entering Europe." He also added that the United States "has the ability" to meet Europe's energy needs. According to what he said, this move is to achieve Trump's "peace agenda."

The Democrats of the United States announce energy plans to promote the 2026 midterm elections

According to a draft bill released by the Democrats of the U.S. House of Representatives on September 24, tax benefits for renewable energy projects will be restored and low-income energy aid programs will be expanded. The blueprint aims to curb rising energy costs for Americans by increasing investment in wind and solar, building transmission lines to strengthen the grid, and weakening the Trump administration’s support for fossil fuel projects rather than renewable energy. The draft discussion includes terms such as restoring renewable energy tax credits, establishing investment tax incentives for new transmission lines, expanding energy assistance programs for low-income households, and providing poor families with reliable heating and cooling services throughout the year.

Dallas Fed Investigation: US shale industry says policy mistakes lead to loss of vitality

The U.S. oil and gas industry is escalating its private dissatisfaction with President Trump's energy agenda, warning that policy mistakes are hurting the world's largest oil producer. The criticism was revealed in the latest energy survey of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas released on Wednesday. The quarterly report is widely read in the energy industry and contains anonymous, unfiltered xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comments from respondents to production and service xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies. The report quoted an interviewee as saying: "The US shale business has broken down. Once the world's most dynamic energy engine, it has now been hollowed out by political hostility and economic ignorance." Some experts predict that the global oil market is heading for oversupply as OPEC+ member states continue to increase production and Trump encourages the United States to significantly increase production to achieve its "energy-dominated" goal. The result is a steady decline in oil prices. The U.S. crude oil benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has fallen nearly 10% in 2025. According to an average forecast from executives of 136 oil and gas xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies in the southwest, WTI will close at $63 per barrel by the end of 2025, down 7.4% from the forecast more than two months ago.

The new cabinet of Thailand is sworn in

The new Thai cabinet, with Anutin Chanweila Army as prime minister and minister of the interior, met with Thai King Maha Vajiralongkorn at the Rousse Palace in Bangkok on the evening of the 24th and was sworn in before the emperor. On the night of the oath ceremony, Anutin presided over a special cabinet meeting to discuss the draft policy to be read to Congress in the next step. Anutin is expected to deliver a policy address to Congress next week.

Hungarian Foreign Minister: Western European countries adopt double standards on energy issues

On the 24th local time, Hungarian Foreign Minister Sijaldo said in an interview in New York that some European politicians accused Hungary of purchasing Russian energy in an attempt to cover up the fact that most Western European countries are still purchasing Russian oil through detours. The latest data shows that only 2.2% of Russia's crude oil exports flow to Hungary, which exposes Western European countries that buy oil from Russia through Asian countries. Sijaldor said that the energy supply through the Adriatic oil pipeline is not sufficient to meet Hungary's demand. "Tests in recent weeks have clearly proved that this pipeline cannot continuously transport large amounts of oil under current technical conditions." Hungary’s geographical location determines the reality of Russian energy that cannot be shaken off.

Deutsche Bank: The U.S. government may be in its first shutdown since the winter of 2018-19

Traders are cautiously waiting for Thursday's initial unemployment claims data and Friday's PCE inflation data, while paying close attention to the tricky progress that could trigger the U.S. government shutdown. U.S. President Trump canceled key talks with Senate Minority Leader Schumer and House Minority Leader Jeffries, which was expected to avoid a government shutdown before the September 30 deadline. "The cancellation of talks has sparked a new round of concerns, funds may run out of next week's deadline, and we may see the first government shutdown since the winter of 2018-19," Deutsche Bank analyst Jim Reid said in a report to clients early Wednesday. "Bank of England Governor Bailey said there is room for further rate cuts. Consumers are cautious. Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey raised the prospect of a possible further rate cut and warned cautious British people to reduce dining and shopping. He said, "There is still room for downward interest rates. But the specific timing and decline will depend on the trajectory of inflation's decline." "The current labor market has shown signs of weakness, and employment data is also slightly reflected."

The Ukrainian delegation will go to the United States to discuss military cooperation at the end of September. The United States focuses on drones. On September 24, local time, Ukrainian Ambassador to the United States, Stefaneshina, said that the Ukrainian delegation will go to the United States at the end of September to negotiate on the legal part of the joint weapons production agreement. When asked whether Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump discussed military cooperation between the two countries during the meeting, Stefaneshina gave a positive reply and emphasized that the relevant discussions were quite in-depth. It is reported that relevant military cooperation involves joint production of weapons, and may also include sales to other countries. StefanichNa further revealed that the issue of military cooperation was proposed by Zelensky, and Trump responded very positively to this. He praised Ukraine's innovative ability and strength for several minutes and sent a positive signal. Trump also hopes that the Ukrainian team will arrive in the United States on September 30 to negotiate the legal part of the agreement. Stefanesina said the United States is mainly interested in various types of drones. Zelensky said that different types of drones can be discussed according to the needs of the US government.

Domestic News

The cumulative output of my country's first national shale oil demonstration zone exceeded 5 million tons

Today (September 25), my country's first national shale oil demonstration zone, China's first national shale oil demonstration zone, the cumulative output of China's Xinjiang Jimusar Shale oil exceeded 5 million tons, marking the stage of my country's development of shale oil from technological exploration to stable output. The Jimusar Shale Oil Demonstration Zone is located in the eastern part of the Junggar Basin, with an area of ​​1,278 square kilometers and a reservoir buried depth of more than 3,800 meters. Since the beginning of this year, the production capacity construction of the demonstration zone has continued to accelerate, with 48 drilling rigs xn--xm-6d1dw86k.completed, and the daily output exceeded 5,000 tons for the first time, setting a record high.

The European Automobile Industry Association released its first half of 2025 report, and the Chinese market grew strongly.

The "Global and EU Automobile Industry Economics and Market Report" recently released by the European Automobile Industry Association (ACEA) shows that the global automobile market is significantly differentiated, the Chinese market growth is strong, while overall demand and production in Europe are under pressure. The report pointed out that the EU's economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic. EU GDP is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2025, with inflation expected to drop to 2.3%, with an average of 1.9% in 2026, lower than the ECB's 2% target. Employment is expected to continue to increase, with the unemployment rate expected to drop to an all-time low of 5.7% in 2026. Global car registrations increased by 5% in the first half of the year to 37.4 million vehicles. The Chinese market grew by 12%, driven by policy support; the North American market grew by 2.5%; Europe fell by 2.4% overall, of which the EU market fell by 1.9%, but Turkey, EFTA countries and the UK played a stable role.

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