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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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FinTech Age Awards颁发
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
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荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
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2016年最佳外汇经纪商
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2015年最佳本地客户服务
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Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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2015最佳外汇交易平台
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2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
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2017年伦敦财富管理奖
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2016最佳本土 客户服务
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中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
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2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
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荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
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荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
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2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
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投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
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World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
FinTech Age Awards颁发
-
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
-
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
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荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
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2016年最佳黄金经纪商
-
2016年最佳外汇经纪商
-
2015年最佳本地客户服务
-
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
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Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
2015最佳外汇交易平台
-
2015最佳金融交易平台
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2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
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2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
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金融行业的佼佼者
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认证最优金牌级别
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2014年首届亚军
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Finance Magnates 颁发
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
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COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
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荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
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Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
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荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
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FX168于2020年12月颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
-
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
2017年伦敦财富管理奖
-
2016最佳本土 客户服务
-
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
-
2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
-
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
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荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
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荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
-
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
-
荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
-
荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
-
荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
-
2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
-
投查查于2024年颁赠
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Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
-
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
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CFI.co于2022年颁赠
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
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World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
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World Finance 2021颁发
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World Finance 2021颁发
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FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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Global Forex Awards颁赠
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CFI.co于2020年颁赠
-
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
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荣获Global Business Awards 2020
-
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
FinTech Age Awards颁发
-
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
-
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
-
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
-
2016年最佳黄金经纪商
-
2016年最佳外汇经纪商
-
2015年最佳本地客户服务
-
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
-
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
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荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
2015最佳外汇交易平台
-
2015最佳金融交易平台
-
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
-
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
-
金融行业的佼佼者
-
认证最优金牌级别
-
2014年首届亚军
-
Finance Magnates 颁发
-
Finance Magnates 颁发
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
-
COLWMA 2024年颁赠
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023最佳外汇客户服务奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023欧洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023澳大拉西亚最佳外汇经纪商奖
-
荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023拉丁美洲最佳外汇经纪商奖
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荣获World Finance Forex Awards 2023中东最佳外汇经纪商奖
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CFI.co于2023年颁赠
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荣获2023年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
荣获2022年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
-
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
2021年迪拜外汇博览会获颁赠
-
Ultimate Fintech 2021年颁赠
-
荣获2021年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
FX168于2020年12月颁赠
-
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
-
荣获2020年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
荣获2019年City of London Wealth Management Awards
-
Shares Magazine 授予 UK Forex Awards 2018
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co)颁赠
-
2017年伦敦财富管理奖
-
2016最佳本土 客户服务
-
中东和北非地区（MENA）增长最快的经纪商
-
2015年最佳外汇科技提供商
-
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
-
2014年最佳外汇科技提供商
-
荣获 The Trading Show 2024年非洲 Africa Fintech 峰会颁赠
-
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
-
荣获2024年中东地区 Brokersview 颁赠
-
荣获2024年阿曼 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
-
荣获2024年迪拜外汇博览会颁赠
-
荣获2024年迪拜 Forex Traders Summit 颁赠
-
2024年埃及 Smart Vision 峰会颁赠
-
投查查于2024年颁赠
-
Capital Finance International Magazine (CFI.co) 2024年颁赠
-
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
-
CFI.co于2023年颁赠
-
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2022年颁赠
-
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
-
2022年迪拜Forex Expo获颁赠
-
荣获Global Forex Awards 2022 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
-
CFI.co于2022年颁赠
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
World Finance Forex Awards 2022 颁发
-
交易社区平台FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
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2021年埃及Smart Vision Investment Expo博览会获颁赠
-
CFI.co于2021年颁赠
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CFI.co于2021年颁赠
-
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
荣获Global Forex Awards 2021 — 零售外汇 颁赠
-
World Finance 2021颁发
-
World Finance 2021颁发
-
FOLLOWME于2021年颁赠
-
Global Forex Awards 2021 — B2B 颁赠
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
-
CFI.co于2020年颁赠
-
荣获Global Business Awards 2020
-
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2020 -
FOLLOWME交易社区授予
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
Global Forex Awards颁赠
-
FinTech Age Awards颁发
-
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
World Finance Magazine 颁赠
World Finance Forex Awards 2019 -
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2018 颁赠
-
荣获2018年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
荣获 Shares Magazine 的 UK Forex Awards 2017 颁赠
-
荣获 World Finance Forex Awards 2017
-
2016年最佳黄金经纪商
-
2016年最佳外汇经纪商
-
2015年最佳本地客户服务
-
Global Brands Magazine 颁赠
-
Online Money Awards 2022 颁发
-
荣获2022年埃及金融博览会颁赠
-
2015最佳外汇交易平台
-
2015最佳金融交易平台
-
2013最佳创新外汇平台奖
-
2020年 Cyprus HR Awards 颁赠
-
金融行业的佼佼者
-
认证最优金牌级别
-
2014年首届亚军
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market analysis
The US debts stopped moving, but the US dollar moved? The "critical point" that the market is worried about may be coming
Wonderful introduction:
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: US bonds are no longer moving, but the US dollar is moving? The "critical point" that the market is worried about may be xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Wednesday (September 24), the US bond market continued the narrow pattern of low-volume trading, with the 10-year yield slightly falling to the range of 4.118% to 4.098%, hitting the low of this week, which was the lowest since the low of 4.043% last Thursday. The dollar index rebounded under the support of Fed Chairman Powell's night speech, regaining lost ground in the past week. The latest quote hovered around 97.745, up 0.5% from the previous two days. This round of adjustments stems from the market's recalibration of the Fed's expectations of further easing. Powell emphasized that the policy is still "moderately restrictive" and suggested that tariff remarks may only bring a short-term price shock, leaving more room for interest rate cuts.
Overall, the moderate downward trend in US Treasury yields is in sharp contrast to the short-term recovery of the US dollar. The capital side shows that the overnight repurchase rate is stable at 4.19%, but settlement outflows are about to intensify liquidity pressure, and market sentiment is swaying between caution and optimism. San Francisco Fed President Daley's speech provides more guidance.
Technical bottoming and long-short equilibrium of US Treasury yields
From the 240-minute chart, the correction of the 10-year US Treasury yield since its high of 4.353% on August 20 has xn--xm-6d1dw86k.come to an end. After hitting a bottom of 4.099% on September 16, the price gradually stabilized and rebounded to 4.131%. Although this round of repaired rise has not rewritten the overall downward channel, it has shifted momentum from bear-dominated to long-short tug-of-short tug-of-short. The moving average convergence and divergence index (MACD) double lines are bonded near the zero axis, the DIFF line value is 0.007, the DEA line value is 0.012, and the bar chart shrinks to -0.010, indicating that the long and short forces are tending to balance, and the short-term volatility is fading.The narrowing of the Bollinger band channel further strengthens this signal, with the mid-rail level 4.132% becoming the current anchor point and the price is running closely below it, which often indicates that the market is about to brew a directional breakthrough.
Recalling the recent trend, yields accelerated downward after the Fed's 25 basis points cut last week, but the rebound at the beginning of this week stemmed from a re-evaluation of the policy's "moderate restrictiveness" and avoided concerns about excessive easing. The 2-year yield also hit a weekly low of 3.559%, and the local low was 3.468%, and the 20-year and 30-year yields fell by 0.5 basis points. The curve showed a slight bullish pattern, benefiting from the simultaneous decline in the UK Treasury yields in the long term. Market xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comments from well-known institutions pointed out that this pattern reflects investors' expectations of global central bank consistency, including potential easing signals from the European Central Bank after the unexpected decline in German business confidence to 87.7. However, subtle changes in the capital side cannot be ignored: the general mortgage repurchase (GC) interest rate opened 2 basis points higher to 4.19%, the exit of government-supported enterprise (GSE) funds ended the overnight softening of the previous two days, and the scale of long positions is still high, and the window for liquidity supplementation is gradually narrowing.
At the fundamental level, today's focus is undoubtedly the August new home sales data at 10:00 a.m., with the consensus expected to be 650,000 units annualized, the same as July, but it is still 10% lower than the same period last year. Mortgage interest rates fell slightly to 6.34% (30-year benchmark) in August, which may inject a trace of positive momentum into the September data. MBA data shows that the mortgage application index rebounded slightly by 0.6% to 388.3 last week, with the purchase and refinancing sub-indexes rising 0.3% and 0.8% respectively, suggesting that the housing market is still resilient at high interest rates, but the increase in existing housing supply may further suppress demand. The 5-year Treasury bond auction in the afternoon (US$70 billion) will also test demand. The current premium through GC is stable at 26 basis points, and the short position reduction supports the attractiveness of medium and short-term paper. The Federal Reserve's reverse repurchase operation (RRP) rose to $14.17 billion yesterday, with the GC interest rate point of 4.12%, indicating that institutional funds still prefer safe assets, but the settlement outflows of tomorrow and Friday totaled $39 billion, and another $98 billion was added on Tuesday, which will amplify the tightening effect of the capital side.
The rebound momentum of the US dollar index is positively correlated with US bonds
The 240-minute chart of the US dollar index shows that it has entered a more than a month of volatile downward trend since the peak in early August. It rose rapidly after the low of 96.2109 on September 16. Its current price is 97.6799, with a cumulative rebound of more than 1.4%. This round of upward actions can be thanks to the confirmation of the MACD Golden Cross. The DIFF line 0.0322 and DEA line 0.0176 both stand on the zero axis, and the bar chart is enlarged to 0.0291, and the short-term bull structure is clear. Prices have effectively broken through the Bollinger Band middle track 97.4674, and launched a positive impact on the upper track 97.8372, which is closely linked to the simultaneous recovery of US Treasury yields: the stabilization of yields often amplifies the reflux of funds in US dollar assets.Gravity, especially in the context of Fed policy expectations shifting from dovish to neutral.
From the historical perspective, although the downward trend of the US dollar index since its previous high of 100.2599 has not xn--xm-6d1dw86k.completely reversed, this week's rebound has pulled the index back from Monday's low, standing out from the simultaneous weakness of the euro, yen and pound. The euro fell 0.5% against the US dollar to 1.1751, and the pound fell 0.4% to 1.3467. In the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comments, the well-known foreign exchange strategist emphasized that Powell's speech reiterated the balance of employment and inflation, avoiding the risk of premature easing, which directly ignited the defensive buying of the US dollar. The probability of a rate cut of 25 basis points each in the remaining two meetings of the year rose to 94%, but the core PCE data (released on Friday) will become a key turning point. If the monthly expectation of 0.2% month-on-month will be fulfilled, it will consolidate the expectation of two rate cuts unless the geopolitical situation in Europe further deteriorates. The transmission of capital markets is also worth noting: OIS interest rate rose 0.002% to 3.906% in 0x March, 45.2 basis points lower than the average SOFR on the 10th day, implying that the probability of interest rate cut in October is 85%, the white and red contract of SOFR futures remained flat, and the green and blue contracts rose 0.5 basis points, which strengthened the basis of the short-term resilience of the US dollar.
U.S. Treasury yields are the core anchor of the US dollar trend. From a technical perspective, the positive correlation between the two is fully reflected in this round of rebound: if the yield can maintain the support of the Bollinger lower track of 4.106%, the 97.4674 middle track of the US dollar index will gain more breathing space; on the contrary, if the yield rate is retested at the previous low of 4.099%, the US dollar may face the test of the 97.0986 lower track. Institutional observers pointed out that this linkage stems from the market's rekindling of the Fed's "reversal operation" bond purchase expectations. Although the fiscal side is facing long-term deficit pressure, it is buffered in the short term by stabilizing the auction scale and exploring alternative financing channels (such as sovereign fund-type entities), which indirectly supports the relative strength of the US dollar. Today's auction of 17-cycle Treasury bonds and 2-year floating-rate notes (total scale of US$93 billion) will also test this logic. If demand is stable, the rebound momentum of the US dollar may further amplify.
Potential risks and market expectations driven by fundamentals
Fundamental factors dominate the middle of this week. Although Powell's cautious statement did not change the market's pricing of the two interest rate cuts this year, the warning of emphasizing the "risk-free policy option" highlights the dual pressures of stubborn inflation and slowing employment, which directly affects the anchoring level of US Treasury yields and is transmitted to the US dollar through policy expectations. German IFO business confidence unexpectedly fell to 87.7, coupled with the decline in UK long-term bond yields, strengthened the global consensus on easing, but weak European data also indirectly raised the safe-haven premium of the US dollar. Well-known market strategist analyzed that weak inflation or employment data may trigger the repricing of the two interest rate cuts at the end of the year, driving further downward trends in yields, and the interpretation of the "one-time" impact of tariff rhetoric has eased the market's immediate concerns about price levels.
The market is concerned about the speech of the Federal Reserve Daly, as a representative of the neutral faction, his statement of economic outlook may be extendedContinuing Powell's balanced argument, but any dovish tilt to the labor market could amplify expectations of interest rate cuts and lower the yield curve. The capital market has already emerged. GC interest rates show through the benchmark basis that the 5-year paper premium is -26 basis points, 10-6 basis points, and the 20-year paper narrows significantly to -106 basis points. The short position reduction suggests a recovery in demand, but the heavy pressure of settlement outflows will start tomorrow, and the liquidity pumping of US$39 billion may amplify the overnight volatility.
Some senior users emphasize the risk of false breakthroughs under the narrowing of the yield Bollinger band, and recommend paying attention to the 4.158% upper track; institutional accounts focus on the positive correlation between the US dollar and the yield, pointing out that if the PCE data is moderate, the index may challenge the previous high of 97.9489, but we need to be wary of the exhaustion of bull momentum. Overall, these voices strengthen the market's reliance on fundamental guidance, and the monthly month-on-month of inflation reports will become a watershed between the US dollar and US bond trends.
Next 2-3: Oscillation builds momentum, and the direction is to be confirmed by data
Looking forward to the next 2-3, US Treasury yields are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range of 4.16% to 4.10%. If the 10-year support is maintained and 4.150% resistance is tested, it will provide a breathing for the bulls, but the narrowing of the Bollinger channel implies that the breakthrough needs fundamentals to help. If the 0.2% month-on-month expectation of the PCE data on Friday is fulfilled, it may consolidate the downward channel, and the yield may retest the low point of 4.099%; on the contrary, strong employment signals will ignite upward action energy and challenge the 4.252% previous level. The US dollar index is gaining momentum on the 97.72 platform. The amplification of the MACD golden cross may push it to charge towards the 97.9489 resistance. The positive correlation with the yield will dominate the short-term path. If the settlement pressure on the capital side is not excessive, the US index is expected to hold the 97.4674 middle track and open up the imagination space to the 100 mark. However, if the yield falls too quickly, the downside risk will point to 97.0986.
The overall market will revolve around the Fed's easing path and weak global data. The downward pressure on US Treasury yields may continue to the long end. The rebound momentum of the US dollar depends on the stability of policy expectations. Market sentiment may diverge before and after the data is released, but the tone of wide fluctuations remains unchanged. Keep a close eye on Daly's speech and PCE guidance to capture potential turning points.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The US Treasury is not moving, but the US dollar is moving? The "critical point" that the market is worried about may be xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming". It was carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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