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The downward trend of the US and Japan has not changed, and the yen may have a good opportunity to buy at the bottom

Wonderful introduction:

Without the depth of the blue sky, there can be the elegance of white clouds; without the magnificence of the sea, there can be the elegance of the stream; without the fragrance of the wilderness, there can be the emerald green of the grass. There is no seat for bystanders in life, we can always find our own position, our own light source, and our own voice.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Official Website]: The downward trend of the United States and Japan has not changed, and the yen may have a good opportunity to buy at the bottom." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

On Wednesday (September 24), the US dollar remained strong against the Japanese yen, up 0.31% and trading around 148.09. Recently, the yen has maintained a box fluctuation trend.

Powell's hawkish speech in the early morning caused the US dollar to rise slightly, further pushing the dollar to achieve a moderate intraday upward trend against the Japanese yen. At the same time, Japan's (PMI) performance was lower than expected, triggering the Nikkei 225 stock index to fall, while the Japanese yen fell moderately.

Trading level institutions remind that due to the continuous rise of Nikkei 225, foreign investors have continued to buy large quantities of Japanese stocks in the past few quarters. They may increase the foreign exchange hedging ratio for buying Japanese stocks, which in turn triggers a sell-off in the yen. At the same time, in terms of government bonds, the decline in short-term government bond yields will also reduce overseas investors' interest in buying Japanese government bonds to suppress the yen. But the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve's policy expectations are diverging, and the replacement of Japanese political parties may be expected to limit the decline in the low-yield yen.

Powell's hawkish speech boosted the US dollar

The US dollar attracted some buying in the Asian and European session on Wednesday. At present, after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a speech on Tuesday, the US dollar has temporarily suspended its two-day pullback since hitting a high of more than a week on Monday. Powell pointed out that policy makers face xn--xm-6d1dw86k.complex situations when weighing "priority to xn--xm-6d1dw86k.combat inflation" and "saving employment stability."

Powell further stated that excessive easing policies may lead to the failure to xn--xm-6d1dw86k.completely resolve the inflation problem and ultimately reverse the policy direction. The remarks suppressed the market's expectations of more interest rate cuts in the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming months, and thus boosted the demand for US dollar to buy and helped the US dollar exchange rate against the Japanese yen after a two-day correctionRegain the upper action power.

Traders are currently focusing on U.S. new home sales data released later in the North American trading session to seek short-term trading guidance. However, the core market focus is still on the key US macro data to be released in the second half of this week - including the final GDP value and the personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index.

Japan's manufacturing PMI is lower than expected to suppress the yen

S&P Global's initial value of Japan's manufacturing PMI fell from 49.7 in August to 48.4 in September, the largest decline since March, and the 14th time in the past 15 months, putting downward pressure on the yen during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Nikkei 225 stock index fell accordingly, while the yen fell gently.

The differentiation of US and Japan monetary policies limits the decline of the yen

Former Bank of Japan member Anda said that the Bank of Japan may raise its economic and price forecasts in the October quarterly outlook report. If strong GDP growth in the second quarter drives the central bank to raise its economic growth and price forecasts, it is not ruled out that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates in October. If the Bank of Japan pays attention to risks, it may postpone interest rate hikes until March next year. The Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes to 0.75% may not cause too much damage to Japan's economic growth.

And given the resilience signal of the Japanese economy, investors are still deciding the possibility that the Bank of Japan will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in October. This expectation is in sharp contrast to the Fed's dovish policy shift, and the strengthening of the policy differentiation pattern may be expected to limit the significant depreciation of the low-yield currency yen.

In addition, the leadership election of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) of Japan will be held on October 4. If a dovish candidate is elected, the Bank of Japan's next rate hike may be postponed. However, the Bank of Japan has clearly sent out a signal: if the economy and price trends meet expectations, interest rate hikes are still within the policy options.

Nevertheless, investors remain firmly convinced that the Bank of Japan will insist on promoting the normalization of policies. In the Bank of Japan's resolution to maintain policy unchanged last week, hawkish members raised objections, further confirming this expectation.

In addition, xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compared with the Federal Reserve's signal that "two more interest rate cuts will be implemented in the remainder of this year", the positions of the Bank of Japan and the Bank of China have formed a significant differentiation - this differentiation may be expected to curb the dollar's rise and provide support for the low-yield currency yen. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions will also limit the decline of the safe-haven currency, the Japanese Yen, and put upward suppression on the dollar-JPY exchange rate.

In addition, traders will also pay attention to the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Friday this week, which may affect market expectations of the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes, and then dominate the yen trend. Nevertheless, from the perspective of fundamentals, the yen bulls still have support, so be cautious before betting that the US dollar against the yen has risen sharply.

Rising yields in Japan have suppressed the yen in the short term

Japanese Treasury prices rose on Wednesday, as traders are evaluating the economic policies of prime minister candidates. At the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond yieldIt fell 1 basis point to 1.645%. The five-year yield fell 0.5 basis points to 1.220% today after hitting a 17-year high on Monday. Japan's government bonds have been under pressure in recent months as global concerns about widening government deficits, domestic political uncertainty in Japan and a decrease in the Bank of Japan's bond purchases.

The decline in short-term treasury bond yields will also reduce overseas investors' interest in buying Japanese treasury bonds to suppress the yen.

But Yusuke Matsuo, senior market analyst at Ruisui Securities, believes that the possibility of Koizumiro winning is increasing, which may lead to the rapid closing of so-called "high-market trading" that bet on rising stock markets, depreciation of the yen and steeper Japanese treasury yield curves.

Because Koizumi Shinjiro prefers to support the Bank of Japan in promoting the normalization of monetary policy (implicit interest rate hikes) rather than maintaining or expanding easing, it is in sharp contrast to Takashi Saeko's opposition to rate hikes (although Takashi Saeko seems to have eased her expansionist tone and avoided directly xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commenting on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy or the possibility of lowering the consumption tax rate), it will be a boost to the yen in the future.

Technical Analysis:

The US dollar against the Japanese yen is accelerating to the key resistance level of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) near the 148.00 mark, but the exchange rate is still a rebound trend at the moment, which may become a good opportunity for Japanese buyers to buy the Japanese yen.

The US dollar-JPY exchange rate has remained fluctuating within the established range since early August, forming a rectangular consolidation pattern, indicating that the market is in the consolidation stage. In addition, the oscillating indicators on the daily chart show signs of rising, but the US dollar and the Japanese yen are still in a rebound pattern, which means that before the exchange rate rises by 149.10, you need to be cautious before short-term long operations.

At the same time, no significant buying appeared above the 148.00 integer mark, which also indicates that the pair is still biased downward.

Therefore, any subsequent upward trend may first face the immediate suppression level near the 148.00 integer mark; after standing firm, the next resistance range is 148.35-148.40 (that is, the two-week high reached on Monday). If you can confirm that you can stabilize the 200-day SMA, the US dollar-JPY exchange rate is expected to climb to the 149.00 mark, and then advance to the monthly high (about 149.15 area).

On the other hand, if the exchange rate falls below the Asian trading session low (about 147.50), it may be supported at the volatile low (about 147.20 area) hit after the Bank of Japan’s resolution on Friday; the support level is after the 147.00 mark. If it falls below this mark, the US dollar-JPY exchange rate may accelerate to the 146.20 level support level. If the downward trend continues, it may further extend to the range of 145.50-145.45 - that is, the lowest level from July 7 to date that hit last Wednesday.

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The downward trend of the US and Japan has not changed, and the yen may have a good opportunity to buy at the bottom

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The downward trend of the US and Japan has not changed, and the yen may have a good opportunity to buy at the bottom

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