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Gold and silver are rising madly, and the super cycle may push commodities to rise again
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Gold and silver are rising rapidly, and the super cycle may push xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodities to rise again." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Thursday (September 25), LME copper continued to rise by more than 1% on the basis of yesterday's 3.2%, while gold and silver were rising, and silver even rose by more than 2%.
While the industrial metal sector was hit by this supply shock, the copper price surged, the precious metal market also showed significant signal of tight physical supply.
In addition to gold and silver, platinum, as the best mainstream xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity this year, has risen by nearly 70% year-on-year, and its futures market still maintains a significant spot premium - this is a clear proof of the imbalance between supply and demand. The latest trading price of platinum is about $1,510 per ounce.
Ole Hansen, head of xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity strategy at SaxoBank, conducted a disassembly analysis of the current situation and pointed out that for the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity as a whole, "we are still at the start-up tipping point of the super cycle."
The copper market is facing a supply crisis
As the world's second largest copper mine, the force majeure incident at the Glasberg mine, coupled with the suspension of production by the Constancia, a subsidiary of Peru's Hudbay Mining, and the continued operational difficulties faced by a mine in Chile's Codelco, have further worsened the situation. Hansen said: "In essence, the world's two core copper mining businesses are temporarily suspended.
At the current stage, the market cannot withstand such an impact." Hansen pointed out that this situation has pushed the London Metal Exchange copper price to break through the key price of US$10,160 per ton, forming a technical breakthrough.
Although he mentioned that there has been a significant excess in exchange inventory recentlyIt once suppressed copper prices, but the supply side news is still the core factor that dominates the market.
Hansen explained that the demand structure of copper has undergone fundamental changes in recent years: renewable energy projects and global electrification processes such as copper consumption brought by new energy vehicles are "filling" the demand gap caused by the weakness of the real estate industry.
Copper prices broke through the upward channel and soared towards historical highs
Gold pullback has "healthy attributes", and silver targets are looking at US$50 per ounce
In the precious metals sector, gold and silver are still in the consolidation stage after experiencing strong performance throughout the year. Gold has increased by about 42% year-to-date, with current trading prices fluctuating around $3,780 per ounce.
Hansen believes that the recent rally is a healthy pullback, and "even if it pulls back to the $3,600 per ounce level, it will not substantially undermine the overall bull market structure."
He believes that large institutional investors' current holdings in gold are "apparently" still in a low-level state. The current trading price of silver is close to US$44 per ounce, with an increase of about 50% year-on-year, and is still the core focus of the market.
Hansen is particularly optimistic about silver. He said that if he has a bullish view on gold, "it must be concerned about whether silver can reach the $50 per ounce mark." He revealed that he "even is more optimistic about silver than he is optimistic about gold", because silver has greater upward elasticity - the support logic of his view is that the global silver market has been in supply shortage for many years, and demand on the industrial side is strong.
Spot silver continuously breaks through the upper track of the channel, or is a good position to take short-term profits
Energy transformation may push xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodities into a super cycle
Hansen integrates the above topic and points out that the global market is at a critical turning point. “For the long-term trend of xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodities as a whole, I think we… are at the start-up tipping point of the super-cycle.”
He defined this cycle as a “super-cycle of energy transition”, which includes the massive inflationary investment required for the electrification process, and the reindustrialization process in the United States. Hansen concluded: "In my opinion, these factors all point to the rise in xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity prices."
At the same time, domestic economists also said that as the irregular xn--xm-6d1dw86k.competition of upstream xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies is governed, xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity prices will rebound. Futures such as copper, aluminum, gold, silver, etc. have made considerable returns this year, and gold and silver are the best assets of the year, and their growth may far exceed expectations.
Under the macro context of global interest rate cuts, xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodities closely related to the AI industry, new energy field and electric vehicle industry chain, such as copper, aluminum and rare earths, are expected to maintain an upward trend in the future.
The above content is all about "[XM Foreign Exchange Platform]: Gold and silver are rising rapidly, and the super cycle may push xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodities to rise again". It is carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Foreign Exchange. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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