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Japan's ruling party president election, US non-agricultural data debuts

Wonderful introduction:

Walk out of the thorns, there is a bright road covered with flowers; when you reach the top of the mountain, you will see the cloudy mountain scenery like green clouds. In this world, a star falls and cannot dim the starry sky, a flower withers and cannot desolate the whole spring.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "【XM Group】: Japan's ruling party presidential election, US non-agricultural data will debut". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

Next week (September 29 to October 4), global financial markets will continue to listen to the interpretation of the US Federal Reserve Chairman's policy on the rate cut in September. At the same time, a number of US economic data and non-farm employment data on Friday will be released. The data will cross-verify the Fed's chairman's proposals and provide guidance on the Federal Reserve's interest rate agenda meeting at the end of October.

The eurozone will also intensively release economic and inflation data to provide a basis for whether the European Central Bank will keep interest rates unchanged, and the RBA, the Bank of Canada, and the Bank of Japan have also had voices. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party of Japan will elect a new president on the weekend, and the new president will become the new prime minister of Japan. The political propositions of different prime ministers will affect whether the Bank of Japan will maintain interest rates unchanged.

On Monday (September 29), the euro zone economic index took the lead, and the initial judgment on the quality of economic recovery

On Monday, the euro zone economic data was the first to appear: the final values of the euro zone economic prosperity index, industrial prosperity index and consumer confidence index will be announced one after another. As a core indicator reflecting the economic vitality of the eurozone, it can break the market's doubts about stagflation in the eurozone.

All Australia announced on Tuesday (September 30) whether to maintain the 3.6% benchmark interest rate, and the Fed's speech added to volatility

The market will usher in a "policy and data double-focus day" on Tuesday. Australia will decide whether to keep the 3.6% benchmark interest rate unchanged. As a major resource exporter, interest rates directly affect its exchange rate, thereby affecting the prices of xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodities and other xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodities.

At the same time, the Bank of Japan will release a summary of the opinions of the members of the review of the Monetary Policy Meeting in September, which will provide important guidance on whether the Bank of Japan should keep interest rates unchanged.

The subsequent release of China's PMI data will be globallyThe recovery of manufacturing provides key clues.

In the afternoon, the eurozone economic locomotive Germany will release the annualized CPI in September and retail sales data in August, which will directly affect the market's analysis of whether there is stagflation in the European economy.

In the United States, Chicago PMI and JOLTs job vacancy data will be followed in August. The latter is the leading indicator of the employment market that the Federal Reserve is concerned about. If there is an unexpected decline, it will strengthen the signal of weak employment market and affect the short-term trend of the US dollar.

In addition, three U.S. local Fed chairmen will make speeches, and the market needs to focus on capturing their differences on the job market and the October interest rate cut. At present, there is obvious controversy within the Federal Reserve about the extent of interest rate cuts, and the policy tendency of officials' remarks will directly disturb market expectations.

On Wednesday (October 1), "Small Non-agricultural" ADP debuted, and the euro zone CPI policy clues

On Wednesday, my country started the National Day holiday, and the changes in US API and EIA crude oil inventories will be announced in accordance with the practice. The number of US ADP employment in September, as a "forecast indicator" of non-agricultural data, will affect the market's early bet on non-agricultural data, and will attract market attention.

The euro zone reconciliation CPI data will also be released, which is the core inflation indicator that the ECB is concerned about.

The final values of the Eurozone, Germany, France and the UK will be disclosed one after another. Although the influence is not as good as the initial value, we must also be wary of significant deviations from the initial value. Brazil's manufacturing PMI provides a reference for the vitality of manufacturing in emerging markets.

In the evening, the Fed Vice Chairman and two local Fed Chairmans will deliver speeches. As a core policy interpretation occasion after the interest rate cut, his statement on the "employment-inflation" balance will directly guide the market to bet on interest rate bets at the interest rate meeting at the end of October.

Trade accounts and unemployment benefits were issued on Thursday (October 2), and the Bank of Canada minutes decrypted the logic of interest rate cuts

Thursday market focused on "global economic and trade and employment clues". Australia's xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity and service trade account was released in August. As the core data reflecting its foreign economic and trade activities, its resource export sub-items can reflect the global economic recovery to a certain extent.

The euro area unemployment rate data will be disclosed later. If the unemployment rate rises, it will resonate with economic prosperity indicators, aggravating concerns about the weak economy in the euro area. In the United States, the number of people who requested unemployment benefits this week and last week will reflect the real-time situation of the employment market. xn--xm-6d1dw86k.combined with JOLTs data, the employment market picture can be constructed. If the number of people who have unemployment benefits increases, it will further prove the downward risk of employment. The monthly factory order data of the United States reflects the vitality of manufacturing demand, which has a linkage impact on the US dollar and US stocks.

It is worth noting that Canada will release the minutes of the September interest rate meeting in the early morning of the same day, which will elaborate on the details of its decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month. The market can capture the Bank of Canada's judgment on the economic outlook and thus affect the Canadian dollar exchange rate.

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech at noon. There is currently a possibility of a slight interest rate hike in Japan, and its statement on inflation and monetary policyThe state will trigger fluctuations in the yen; the speech of Dallas Fed Chairman Logan in the evening may further supplement the clues of the Fed's policy stance.

Friday (October 3) The finale of the non-agricultural economy set the Federal Reserve's path, and Japan's unemployment rate added a reference

Friday market ushered in the "data end" of this week. In the morning, Japan announced the August unemployment rate.

Evening time: This week's final data - the US non-farm employment population was released in September. In the past two weeks, Fed officials have clearly stated that the employment market is the core policy consideration. This data will provide the most critical clues for the Federal Reserve's interest rate agenda meeting at the end of October.

If new non-agricultural employment continues to be weak (such as lower than expectations or a sharp downward revision), it will significantly increase the certainty of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in October, suppressing the US dollar and benefiting gold;

If the data exceeds expectations, it may reverse the market's interest rate cut expectations and boost the US dollar's strength.

The current market differences on the Fed's policy path are concentrated on "the balance between weak employment and inflation stickiness". The performance of non-farm data will directly break this balance and trigger violent fluctuations in asset prices.

On Saturday (October 4) Japan's Liberal Democratic Party elections were settled, and the new president induced political and economic expectations

On Saturday, the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party president elections were officially held. Five candidates - the current Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the current Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin Fangmasato, former Minister of Economic Security, Takashi Saemi Takashi, former Secretary-General of the Liberal Democratic Party Toshisuke, and former Minister of Economic Security, Kobayashi Takashi, and former Minister of Economic Security, Kobayashi Takashi will xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compete.

5 people all participated in the elections last year, among which Takashi Saeno once received the most votes in the first round of voting, while Koizumi Shinjiro currently leads the support of Liberal Democratic Party supporters.

According to the rules, candidates must obtain more than half of the total number of 590 votes before they can be elected. If no one exceeds half, they will enter the second round of voting. Since the Liberal Democratic Party holds a minority position in both the Senate and the House of Representatives, the new president needs to win the support of the opposition to be elected prime minister. Their policy tendencies (especially monetary policy and economic stimulus package) will attract market attention: Koizumiro and Lin Fangmai support the Bank of Japan's gradual interest rate hike, while Takashi Hayashi's attitude has changed. The policy choice of the new president may affect the yen exchange rate and the trend of Japanese assets.

Conclusion: Seize the opportunities in policy differentiation and data verification

The core contradiction in the global financial market next week lies in "Feder policy path verification (non-agricultural + official speech)" and "global monetary policy differentiation (ECB/Japan Central Action Direction)".

For investors, it is necessary to focus on US non-farm employment data and speeches by Fed officials. This is the key to judging the medium-term trend of the US dollar and the probability of a rate cut in October. At present, there are significant differences within the Fed regarding the rate cut, and non-farm data will become an important weight on the policy balance.

At the same time, the euro zone reconciliation of CPI and German economic data will determine the expected direction of the ECB policy, which will in turn affect the differentiation opportunities of the euro against the US dollar; the results of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party election may bring a short-term trading window for the yen.

Crude oil investors need to keep a close eye on the demand signals reflected by EIA inventory and China's PMI, while gold can focus on volatility opportunities brought about by non-agricultural data and Fed policy uncertainty.

Overall, next week's market fluctuations will focus on "data verification policy" and "political changes will cause chaos", with two-way opportunities coexisting. Investors need to be vigilant about fluctuations caused by data and speeches beyond expectations, and capture certainty in fluctuations.

The above content is all about "【XM Group】: Japan's ruling party presidential election, US non-agricultural data debuted at the end". It was carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the XM Forex editor. I hope it will be helpful to your transactions! Thanks for the support!

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