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Is GDP upward to 3.8% actually a "virtual fire"? Gold bottomed out and rebounded and stuck at 3740. PCE will determine life and death tonight!

Wonderful Introduction:

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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: GDP has been revised up to 3.8% and is actually a "virtual fire"? Gold bottomed out and rebounded and stuck at 3740. PCE will determine life and death tonight!" Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

During the Asian and European trading session on Thursday, gold prices maintained a volatile pattern, consolidating within the 20-point range, and the amplitude is currently narrowing, with trading around 3751.03. It is worth noting that gold bottomed out and rebounded after the United States released stronger-than-expected economic data during the New York period on Wednesday. We summarized the reasons and the gold price trend after the anti-counter and conducted a forward-looking analysis.

The US data is strong but there are hidden dangers, and gold has bottomed out and rebounded

Although the gold market faced some selling pressure after the US GDP growth rate was significantly revised in the second quarter, it still maintained its position above the $3,700 per ounce mark and is currently holding 3,740.

The third and final correction of the US GDP in the second quarter showed that the economic growth rate from April to June reached 3.8%, a significant upward improvement from the previous estimate of 3.3%.

After the release of the positive GDP report, the US dollar index strengthened significantly; the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.2%. This GDP report is obviously beneficial to the hawks in the US monetary policy and puts a slight negative pressure on precious metals.

It is worth noting that the real GDP growth in the second quarter is mainly due to the decline in imports (Import M is a deduction item in GDP accounting for GDP=C+I+G+X-M. The decline will increase GDP but does not mean the economy is growing) and the growth of consumption expenditure. The decline in investment I and import M partially offset the above growth momentum. At the same time, the US's existing home sales in August fell by 0.2% month-on-month.

Before the release of the report, the gold market was in positive fluctuationRange, but after this strong data was released, gold prices turned from rising to falling. Subsequently, due to the discovery that the GDP was significantly revised, partly due to the sharp decline in exports caused by tariffs, which could offset some of the positive data. Spot gold rose back to around 3740, and is currently trading at $3746 per ounce.

In addition to the GDP data exceeding expectations, the report also showed that US consumption expenditure improved significantly - consumption growth reached 2.5%, a sharp increase from the previous 1.6% estimate.

Chris Zacharelli, chief investment officer of Northlight Asset Management, said that the 3.8% economic growth means that current economic activity is still outperforming the high inflation level.

The stock market valuation is too high and the heat is cooled down, which is good for market liquidity to return gold

Zarcarelli pointed out that there is a major positive factor for gold. He believes that the current positive economic data will not provide too much upward momentum for the US stock market, and economic data will not allow US stocks to share the liquidity of the market.

He said in a report: "We agree with the judgment that the US economy is growing strongly, and we are also impressed by the ability of xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies to achieve excellent performance in xn--xm-6d1dw86k.complex environments, but most of these positive news - even beyond expectations - are fully reflected in the current stock price.

If there is market fluctuation in the short term (we believe that this probability is high), the core reason will be that the current market valuation is far higher than the historical average, and the fault tolerance space has been greatly narrowed."

Risks such as the shutdown of the US government and geopolitics still exist in the second half of this week, the market's concerns about the shutdown of the US government, coupled with the recent escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, have jointly promoted a slight increase in risk aversion sentiment.

The White House Budget Office is asking U.S. federal agencies to develop plans to prepare for the possible massive layoffs during the government shutdown next week.

Agencies have received orders to sort out projects with disposable funds xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming to an end and formulate plans to permanently sack and dismiss positions in areas that do not match the priorities of the Trump administration. It is reported that this move is regarded as an escalation action beyond the conventional shutdown procedure. Under the conventional procedures, non-essential government staff are usually only suspended from pay and will eventually return to their posts and receive repaid wages.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a statement that the move was an "intimidation" and that these unnecessary firings would either be rejected by the court or the government would eventually rehire the employees.

Many uncertainties can restrict the extent of gold prices falling.

Technical analysis:

Spot gold is currently shaking above 3740. The daily chart repeatedly touched the 5-day MA and rebounded once and weaker once. The market is waiting for the core PCE price index in August released by the United States at 8:30 tonight. If the data is higher than expected, the gold price will most likely fall below 3740. Since 3740 is an important key position, it is also the point where bulls are strictly guarding recently. If it is broken below the gold price, it will go to around 3700 to find support.

The above content isIt is about "[XM Group]: GDP has been revised up to 3.8% and is actually a "virtual fire"? Gold bottomed out and rebounded and stuck at 3740. PCE will determine life and death tonight!" The entire content is carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!

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Is GDP upward to 3.8% actually a "virtual fire"? Gold bottomed out and rebounded and stuck at 3740. PCE will determine life and death tonight!

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Trusted by over 15 Million Traders

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Is GDP upward to 3.8% actually a "virtual fire"? Gold bottomed out and rebounded and stuck at 3740. PCE will determine life and death tonight!

Related News

The Most Awarded Broker
for a Reason