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The United States' big non-farm hits in September, expectations of the RBA resolution remain unchanged, and the euro zone CPI data is released

Wonderful introduction:

Since ancient times, there have been joys and sorrows, and since ancient times, there have been sorrowful moon and songs. But we never understood it, and we thought everything was just a distant memory. Because there is no real experience, there is no deep feeling in the heart.

Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange Decision Analysis]: The United States' big non-farm attacks in September, the expectations of the RBA resolution remain unchanged, and the euro zone CPI data is released." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:

XM foreign exchange market prospect: The US's September non-agricultural market is xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming, the expectations of the RBA's resolution remain unchanged, and the euro zone CPI data release

XM forward: The economic data to be released this week are from high to low: the US September non-agricultural employment report, the RBA's interest rate resolution, and the euro zone's September CPI annual rate. Next, we will interpret it one by one.

▲XM chart

At 20:30 this Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor Statistics Bureau will release the U.S. September non-farm employment report. The report will disclose key data of the U.S. job market, which is expected to have a significant impact on the U.S. index and gold and silver market. The most important data in the report is the new non-agricultural employment population, with the previous value of 22,000, and the expected value of 50,000, which is relatively optimistic. According to historical data, the non-agricultural employment population data of more than 200,000 people will boost the US index, and the non-agricultural employment population of 100,000 to 200,000 is weak in boosting the US index. If the non-farm employment population falls below 100,000, the US dollar index will usually be hit by negative impact regardless of whether the latest value is higher than the previous value and expected value. As US President Trump continues to crack down on illegal immigration, the number of new jobs in the United States has dropped sharply in May: 158,000 people were employed in April and plummeted to 19,000 in May. Since May, the U.S. employment data has not yet been able to re-establish the 100,000-person mark. According to data observed by CME Fed, the probability of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision at the end of October is as high as 89.3%. The core reason for the Fed's interest rate cut is that the United StatesThe industry market is too weak. It is expected that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates may exceed 90% after the non-farm employment report is released on Friday.

▲XM chart

This Tuesday at 12:30, the RBA will announce the results of the September interest rate resolution, and mainstream expectations believe that it will maintain the benchmark interest rate of 3.6%. Since the beginning of this year, the RBA has cut interest rates three times, with a cumulative increase of 75 basis points, and the latest rate cut occurred in August. According to historical data, the RBA follows the strategy of "interval interest rate cuts", that is, after the interest rate cut in August, it suspends interest rate cuts in September, and then cuts interest rates again in November. According to economic data, Australia's annual GDP growth rate in the second quarter was 1.8%, rising for three consecutive months. The core inflation rate in the second quarter was 2.7%, down ten consecutive periods. The latest unemployment rate is 4.2%, below the 5% alert level. The total export volume in July was 46.02 billion Australian dollars, hitting a record high in nearly 21 months. Overall, Australia's economic data performed well, and there is no need to significantly lower interest rates, supporting the RBA's judgment that the benchmark interest rate remains unchanged this week.

▲XM chart

At 17:00 this Wednesday, the European Statistics Office will announce the initial annual value of the euro zone's September CPI rate, with the previous value of 2.0%, and the expected value of 2.3%, which is relatively optimistic. The initial annualized value of the core CPI rate in the euro zone in September was announced at the same time, with the previous value of 2.3%, and the expected value remained unchanged. CPI data is a key indicator for judging the inflation level of the euro zone and is also the core basis for the ECB to make monetary policy adjustments. If inflation data continues to fall, the ECB will have to continue to cut interest rates. The inflation target set by the ECB is 2 to 3%, and the current annual CPI rate is within this range, which means that the ECB does not have the urgency to cut interest rates. In the two interest rate decisions in July and September this year, the ECB chose to remain silent, conveying a signal that inflation will continue to maintain a healthy level. It should be noted that since the beginning of this year, the euro has continued to appreciate against the US dollar, which will lead to a decline in import prices in the euro zone and may indirectly lead to a decline in inflation. If the annual CPI rate data in September falls beyond expectations, the possibility of the ECB restarting interest rate cuts will increase, and the euro value will be hit.

XM risk warning, disclaimer, special statement: The market is risky, so be cautious when investing. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' views may change and updates will not be notified separately.

The above content is all about "[XM foreign exchange decision analysis]: The United States' big non-farm attacks in September, the expectations of the RBA resolution remain unchanged, and the euro zone CPI data is released" was carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the XM foreign exchange editor. I hope you can have some information about your transactions.help! Thanks for the support!

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The United States' big non-farm hits in September, expectations of the RBA resolution remain unchanged, and the euro zone CPI data is released

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The United States' big non-farm hits in September, expectations of the RBA resolution remain unchanged, and the euro zone CPI data is released

Related News

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for a Reason