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The US dollar index fluctuates downward, gold breaks through 3830 and hits a new record high
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Group]: The US dollar index fluctuates downward, and gold breaks through 3830 and hits a new record high." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On September 30, early trading in the Asian market on Tuesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 98.03. On Monday, affected by the possible shutdown of the U.S. government, the U.S. dollar index fluctuated downward and fell below the 98 mark, eventually closing down 0.24% to 97.94. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.144%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.635%. Spot gold continued to make rapid progress after breaking through the $3,800 mark in the Asian session, and finally closed up 1.95% to $3,830 during the US session, closing at $3,833.76/ounce; spot silver also rose during the Asian session, and then fell into range fluctuations, finally closing up 1.84% to $46.91/ounce. Crude oil fell 3% as OPEC+ plans to increase production again in November. WTI crude oil fell by more than 3% during the day and fell to an intraday low of $62.83, finally closing down 3.06% to $62.98/barrel; Brent crude oil finally closed down 2.89% to $66.66/barrel.
Analysis of major currencies
Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar hovered around 98.03. The dollar usually weakens before the government shutdown, but often rebounds once the problem is resolved. However, the situation is special, and market pricing faces greater risks: if the shutdown lasts for a longer period of time, it may lead to delays in the release of key economic data, including Friday's non-farm employment report - which is expected to show 59,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Technically, if the US dollar index falls back to 97.92 below 50MA, it will move towards its nearest support level, which is at 97.10–97.30 range.
Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends
1) Analysis of gold market trends
On Tuesday, gold hovered around 3840.45. It is not accidental that gold broke through $3,800, but an inevitable product of the shift in monetary policy, the accumulation of political risks, and the continued geopolitical conflict. Under the triple effects of the opening of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle, the U.S. government shutdown crisis, and the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, gold's hedging attributes and financial attributes have formed a rare resonance. Looking ahead, if the shutdown crisis resolves and economic data continues to be strong, gold prices may face a short-term correction; but if uncertainty continues or geopolitical conflicts escalate, there is still a lot of room for the gold bull market. Investors should pay close attention to key events this week and grasp this golden opportunity rationally to avoid missing out on opportunities in market volatility.
Technical: Gold prices continued to rise on Monday, and buyers' next goal is to test $3,850. The first key support for gold prices is $3,800. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is overbought, it remains at the 70-80 level, which indicates that the bulls still dominate. On the downside, if gold prices plummet below $3,800, it is expected to fall further. The next support level of gold will be $3750, followed by $3700 and the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) $3666.
2) Analysis of crude oil market trends
On Tuesday, crude oil trading around 62.85. Oil prices closed down 3% on Monday, with OPEC+ planning to increase oil production again in November, and Iraq's Kurdistan region resumed exports of oil through Türkiye, enhancing global supply prospects.
Forex market trading reminder on September 30, 2025
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