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Do the US dollar will rise first and then oversold? The suspense is full of non-agricultural eve
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Hello everyone, today XM Foreign Exchange will bring you "[XM Foreign Exchange]: The US dollar will rise first and then oversold? The suspense will be full on the eve of non-farm farms." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
On Monday (September 29), the US dollar index continued to fall last Friday during the European session. Affected by the slightly exceeding expectations in the euro zone's prosperity index, it continued to fall 0.28%, and traded around 97.91. It is worth noting that last Friday (September 26), the US dollar index was affected by the US core PCE price index meeting expectations, which caused the market to heat up the bet on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, falling 0.28%, and closed on the same day with a dark cloud-covered figure.
The trend of the G10 national currency sector has been highly synchronized with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pricing, making US labor market data the core driving factor that dominates the US dollar trend. As the daily chart of the US dollar index emerges at the top pattern, the non-farm employment report (Payrolls) released on Friday plays a significant role in determining whether the US dollar's rise can continue. The specific content is as follows:
G10 national currency and Federal Reserve policies: interest rate cut pricing binds the trend, and the three major employment data cause volatility
G10 national currency trend is closely linked to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pricing. The non-farm employment report, ADP employment data, and JOLTS job vacancy report are the core concerns for short-term volatility risks; the slowdown in employment growth may be driven by labor supply factors, and the top pattern of the US dollar index has exacerbated the short-term downward risks.
Under the suppression of interest rate cut expectations, the difficulty of the US dollar's upward attack has increased significantly
In the past two weeks, whether it is high-interest currencies, financing currencies, safe-haven currencies, and xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity currencies, the entire G10 country monetary system has been subject to the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts. Given that Fed officials are using U.S. labor market data as a core observation indicator when evaluating the timing and amplitude of interest rate cuts, the importance of this data is further highlighted.
July, August non-farm employment report has shown a continuous weak trend, and traders are likely to expect the September data released on Friday to continue this trend - in this context, it is significantly more difficult for the US dollar to further rise. In addition, the daily chart of the US dollar index showed a clear top pattern on Friday, and the US dollar may even experience a substantial weakening market in the next few days.
G10 national currencies and interest rate cut pricing are highly synchronized
G10 national currencies are constrained by the Federal Reserve's policy pricing. Judging from the correlation between the G10 national currencies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut pricing in the past two weeks before the end of September 2025, almost no other factors have a stronger impact on the trend of the G10 national currencies in the past two weeks. The correlation coefficient data below also confirm this conclusion: the correlation coefficients of EUR/USD (yellow), USD/JPY (blue), GBP/USD (grey), USD/CHF (purple), USD/Canadian (red) and Australian dollar/USD (black) all reach ±0.88 and above.
This type of correlation data has high significance and reference value, indicating that the US dollar trend and interest rate cut pricing in the past two weeks are almost xn--xm-6d1dw86k.completely synchronized - when interest rate cut pricing heats up, the US dollar weakens under pressure; when interest rate cut pricing falls, the US dollar rebounds rapidly.
The "black cloud covers the top" pattern strengthens the downward risk of the US dollar
Before the release of the non-agricultural employment report on Friday, the linkage trend between the currency and interest rate cut pricing of G10 countries is likely to be interpreted again - the classic "black cloud covers the top" K-line pattern formed by the daily chart of the US dollar index on Friday further strengthened this judgment. Previously, the US dollar index rebounded to the key resistance level of 98.60 and then encountered resistance and fell back. The confirmation of the top pattern has intensified the risk tendency of the US dollar index to decline in the short term.
Technical Analysis:
In the downward direction, the US dollar index forms a key resonant support range at the September upward trend line around 98.00, which has important tactical significance: According to the evolution of short-term price behavior, investors can lay out long positions above the range, or establish short positions below the range.
If the downward market is realized and falls below the above support range, the US dollar index may test the 96.40 support level due to the lack of effective intermediate buffer between the two major support levels. But if the support range is firmly held, you can look forward to the upward direction, and the bulls are likely to aim at the 98.60 resistance level to seek an effective breakthrough - since early August, the US dollar index has never been able to overcome this critical threshold. Once it breaks through and stands above 98.60, the probability of the US dollar index advancing towards the 100.25 resistance level will increase significantly.
But since the US dollar index is generally suppressed by large head and shoulders top patterns, it is extremely difficult for the US dollar index to rise by 100.
The above content is all about "[XM Forex]: The US dollar has risen first and then oversold? The suspense is full on the eve of non-farm farms". It is carefully xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compiled and edited by the editor of XM Forex. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
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