The U.S. government shutdown is over, the Federal Reserve is sending a lot of hawkish signals, and the U.S. index is caught in a tug-of-war at the 99 mark.

Caution prevailed on Wall Street this week as the sense of relief brought about by the end of the historic U.S. government shutdown gradually dissipated, coupled with a large amount of economic data about to sweep the market and concerns about the Federal Reserve's ability to successfully cut interest rates in December.

Under the global sell-off triggered by the Federal Reserve's hawkish signal, U.S. stocks also fell sharply during the session, and popular sectors favored by momentum traders such as artificial intelligence fluctuated. The S&P 500 ended little changed on Friday after briefly recovering from a 1.4% loss. Nvidia shares rose ahead of earnings release.

Risk aversion deepened Bitcoin’s sell-off this week. Bitcoin has retreated from its all-time high set in early October, recording only modest gains so far in 2025. The largest digital asset fell below the $95,000 mark. CoinGecko data shows that the crypto market continues to be under pressure after encountering a $19 billion liquidation on October 10, which caused the total market value of the entire cryptocurrency to evaporate by more than $1 trillion.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose three basis points to 4.15%. Although U.S. Treasury yields held steady, the U.S. dollar failed to gain strength. The U.S. dollar index fell 0.28% this week, closing above the 99 mark after holding on to Thursday's low of 98.991. In the absence of key data indicators, the market has been stuck in recent trading ranges, leaving the U.S. Dollar Index on the defensive heading into next week.

Spot gold plunged more than 3% intraday on Friday, and finally closed down more than 2%. The market believes that the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut interest rates in December, which is dampening momentum in the gold and silver markets. However, gold is still rising this weekMore than 2%.

"When faced with margin calls and liquidations, traders will close all positions to release margin... This partly explains why even gold is falling even in this risk-off environment," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at CityIndex and FOREX.com.

Foreign exchange market:The U.S. dollar index was under slight pressure overall this week, once falling below the 99 mark, and closed at 99.26 on Friday, falling for the second consecutive week. The longest U.S. government shutdown has ended, and it will still take time for key economic data to be released. Federal Reserve officials have successively released hawkish signals, and the probability of a rate cut in December has decreased. In terms of non-U.S. currencies, the yen fell below the 155 mark against the U.S. dollar for the first time since February. The market believes that Japanese officials may intervene verbally to curb the yen's decline. In addition, the EURUSD has moved significantly higher this week. The pound fluctuated sharply against the dollar after Finance Minister Reeves was reported to have abandoned plans to raise income tax on Friday due to an unexpected improvement in fiscal forecasts.

Gold Market: Precious metal prices are generally higher. Spot gold was boosted by the dual impact of the lower U.S. dollar and safe-haven funds, hitting a maximum of $4,245 per ounce. Spot silver has a similar trend but has a larger increase, once rising by nearly 10%. On Friday, spot gold and silver both plunged rapidly, narrowing gains during the week. Among them, the price of gold fell by more than 100 US dollars during the day. This week, spot gold closed at $4,085 per ounce, up 2.09%. Spot silver closed at $50.58 per ounce, up 4.61%.

Crude oil market: In terms of oil prices, both WTI and Brent crude oil showed a rebound trend after falling sharply in mid-week. OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its forecast for the global crude oil market in the third quarter was adjusted from "supply shortage" to "excess supply"; IEA raised its forecast for next year's global oil supply surplus for the sixth consecutive month, and it is expected that demand will stop growing at the end of this decade.

Market News Review

1. The longest U.S. government shutdown ends, and economic data releases are chaotic

On the evening of November 12, local time, Trump signed a temporary federal funding bill, ending the 43-day longest government shutdown in U.S. history. The bill provides funding for most federal agencies at current levels until January 30, 2026. This shutdown may reduce U.S. GDP by more than 0.1 percentage points.

After the shutdown ended, economic data releases remained chaotic. The U.S. Department of xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commerce announced that it will release the revised GDP value for the third quarter at 21:30 on November 26, and the personal income, expenditure and PCE index for October at 23:00 that day; the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September non-farm employment report at 21:30 next Thursday, and will release September actual wages and other data on November 21. However, it is uncertain whether the October CPI data can be released. Previously, Hassett, director of the U.S. National Economic Council, said that due to the longest shutdown in history, unemployment data for October will not be released for the first time in 77 years. About 1There were different opinions within the White House regarding the new non-farm population data in October. Hassett said that the job creation data would still be calculated, while Press Secretary Levitt said that the entire employment report might not be released. The CPI for October originally scheduled to be released on Thursday has not been released, and it is unclear whether it will be released in the future. Levitt has hinted that it may not be released, and Hassett did not xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to update its economic data release calendar in a few days. It may take months or even longer to resume normal releases as the agency faces challenges such as staffing shortages and leadership vacancies. Economists believe that although October's CPI and employment reports may be inaccurate, they can still provide reference. The November economic report may also be delayed because statistical agencies need to xn--xm-6d1dw86k.complete the September and October reporting work first. This week's ADP weekly report showed that the U.S. labor market slowed down in late October. In the four weeks to October 25, U.S. xn--xm-6d1dw86k.companies shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week; the small business optimism index fell to a six-month low in October, dragged down by deteriorating profits and weakening economic confidence.

2. The Fed's hawks have risen, and the probability of an interest rate cut in December has plummeted

Market analysts believe that unless there are major surprises in the delayed release of data, the rationale for the Fed's third interest rate cut this year will quickly weaken. According to CME's "Fed Watch", the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate cut in December is 51.6%. A month ago, traders believed that the possibility was as high as 95.5%.

Nick Timiraos, "Fed's mouthpiece", pointed out that officials have obvious differences on issues such as the impact of tariffs, the reasons for employment growth and interest rate levels, and Powell faces the challenge of balancing the opinions of all parties. On the one hand, Fed Governor Milan advocated an interest rate cut of at least 25 basis points in December, believing that 50 basis points is more appropriate; San Francisco Fed President Daley said that the slowdown in U.S. employment growth is mainly due to weak demand, tariffs have not triggered widespread inflation, and it is necessary to remain open to further interest rate cuts. On the other hand, many officials are hawkish and prefer not to cut interest rates before January next year. St. Louis Fed President Mussallem said there is limited room for further easing policy and must proceed with caution; Vice Chairman Philip Jefferson emphasized that it is reasonable to steadily advance policy when the interest rate is close to neutral; Boston Fed President Collins believes that inflation is still high and key data are missing, and it is not appropriate to further cut interest rates in the short term and maintain the current Interest rates are more appropriate; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari pointed out that economic activity is more resilient than expected and is cautious about the need to cut interest rates; Cleveland Fed President Hammaker made it clear that current interest rates are not enough to limit economic overheating and that a restrictive policy stance needs to be maintained. Inflationary pressure is expected to continue until the end of the year and early next year.

As liquidity in the US$12 trillion short-term financing market is tight, institutions are calling on the Federal Reserve to take stronger measures. New York Fed President Williams emphasized that restarting bond purchases is a technical operation and not a shift in monetary policy; key figure Roberto Perelli said that bank reserves are no longer sufficient and the Fed will soon launch asset purchases to maintain liquidity, calling on Wall Street to actively use the central bank's standing repurchase facility. In terms of personnel changes, Atlanta Fed President Bostic announced that he will serve in February next year.His retirement, seen as a xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compromise under political pressure, could weaken hawkish voices within the Fed. White House official Hassett said that if he is nominated as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, he will accept the appointment and support a larger interest rate cut. He believes that there is room for lower interest rates and even proposed the rationality of a 50 basis point interest rate cut. He also pointed out that the Fed's decision-making is partisan and plans to promote the reform of the research system.

3. The United States launches Operation "Southern Spear" and Venezuela deploys guerrilla tactics

On November 13, local time, the U.S. Secretary of Defense announced the launch of Operation "Southern Spear", led by the "Southern Spear" Joint Task Force and the U.S. Southern xn--xm-6d1dw86k.command. The goal is to xn--xm-6d1dw86k.combat narco-terrorism, eliminate drug threats in the Western Hemisphere, and protect U.S. homeland security. At the same time, the U.S. Department of Defense announced that plaques at two main entrances to the Pentagon would be replaced with the words "Department of War," triggering widespread attention from the outside world about the intentions of U.S. military operations.

According to reports, Trump was briefed on various options for conducting military operations in Venezuela this week, but has not yet decided on the next step and is still weighing the risks and benefits of expanding military operations. Since the beginning of September, the US military has attacked at least 19 suspected drug trafficking vessels in the Caribbean and the Pacific coast of Latin America, killing 76 people. The USS Ford aircraft carrier formation arrived in Latin American waters, accompanied by three Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers. The aircraft carrier carries more than 4,000 sailors and dozens of attack, reconnaissance and support aircraft. Venezuela is preparing to fight a possible U.S. invasion through "national guerrilla warfare" and has xn--xm-6d1dw86k.completed xn--xm-6d1dw86k.combat deployments in more than 280 strongholds with 5,000 missiles in place. Due to insufficient training and aging equipment of the country's military, conventional warfare cannot last long, so it plans to use guerrilla tactics and create street chaos to resist foreign enemies.

4. Is it possible that Put will reappear? Ukraine said it would stop negotiating with Russia before the end of the year

On November 14, the Russian army launched a large-scale air strike on Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, killing at least one person and injuring 24 others. Almost all areas of Kiev were attacked, including residential buildings, office buildings and medical institutions, and the heating system was damaged. Ukrainian President Zelensky said that the Russian military used 430 drones and 18 missiles to attack many places in Ukraine. At the same time, Russia and Ukraine were fighting fiercely in Pokrovsk (Red Army City) in Donetsk, with the strength ratio of Russia and Ukraine ranging from 10:1 to 8:1.

Previously, new developments emerged surrounding high-level meetings between Russia and the United States and negotiations on the Ukraine conflict. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that if the United States resumes its proposal for a meeting between the Russian and American presidents and starts preparations, Russia is willing to participate in the discussion and xn--xm-6d1dw86k.communicate with Trump on Russia's concerns about Russia's resumption of nuclear tests. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio responded that the prerequisite for Trump and Putin to meet again is that the talks must bring substantial progress in ending the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Previously, Trump had shelved plans to meet with Putin due to differences between the two sides on the Ukraine issue. On the 12th local time, the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that due to lack of results, Ukraine will cease peace negotiations with Russia at least until the end of this year. Press Secretary to the President of RussiaSkow responded that if Ukraine refuses to continue dialogue, it will have to return to the negotiating table in a more unfavorable situation in the future. Russia will continue to carry out special military operations until it achieves the goals set by President Putin. Russia has always been xn--xm-6d1dw86k.committed to peacefully resolving the Ukrainian issue and is open to political and diplomatic channels.

5. The situation in South Asia: Successive explosions in the capitals of India and Pakistan, and renewed conflict on the Cambodia-Thailand border

On Monday and Tuesday this week, bombings occurred in New Delhi, India, and Islamabad, Pakistan, respectively, resulting in a total of 25 deaths and 56 injuries. A car exploded near the Red Fort Metro Station in New Delhi, India, and a suicide attack occurred outside a court in Islamabad, Pakistan. Pakistan's defense minister declared a state of war and accused India of supporting terrorism, which India denied. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vowed to find out the truth and bring those behind the attack to justice.

The border conflict between Cambodia and Thailand has escalated again. On November 12, Thailand announced that it would suspend the implementation of the peace agreement and delay the release of Cambodian soldiers after a landmine explosion near the Preah Vihear Temple injured soldiers. Thailand accuses Cambodia of provocation, and Cambodia denies laying new landmines. The two sides blame each other and the situation is tense.

6. The sixty-year legend xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comes to an end, Buffett issues his last letter to shareholders

This week, Buffett issued his "last" letter to shareholders, stating that he will no longer write an annual report, but will retain the tradition of a Thanksgiving letter to shareholders. He spoke highly of Abel and believed that he was the best person to manage Berkshire. Buffett also stated that he will speed up the progress of donating his legacy to his three children's foundations. On November 10, he converted 1,800 Berkshire A shares into 2.7 million B shares and donated them to multiple foundations, with a donation amount of more than 1.3 billion US dollars. He emphasized that accelerating donations is not a concern for Berkshire's prospects.

7. Trump plans to expand food tariff exemptions and is close to reaching a trade agreement with Switzerland

In order to alleviate the problem of high domestic food prices, the Trump administration has promoted a series of trade agreements and reached framework agreements with Argentina, Guatemala, El Salvador and Ecuador, aiming to reduce tariffs and trade barriers on daily foods such as beef, bananas and coffee beans. Among them, the agreement with Argentina is the most significant. The two countries will open their markets to each other in key product areas. Argentina will provide preferential market access for U.S. xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commodity exports, covering multiple fields. The United States will eliminate reciprocal tariffs on certain unobtainable natural resources and generic pharmaceutical raw materials. This policy adjustment is regarded as the latest sign of regression in Trump's key economic policies and may go beyond the exemption scope of the September executive order.

On Friday, the United States and South Korea reached a trade agreement. South Korea will invest US$350 billion, of which US$150 billion will be invested in the US shipbuilding industry and US$200 billion in other key industrial sectors. The agreement also includes South Korea obtaining the right to build nuclear submarines, establishing strategic partnerships with the United States in multiple fields, and paying US$200 billion in cash in installments to stabilize the Korean won exchange rate. In addition, Switzerland reached a tariff agreement with the United States to reduce the punitive tariffs on its exports to the United States from 39% to approximately 15%.Business leaders stepped in to advance negotiations, shifting from lobbying on the sidelines to engaging directly with the Trump administration.

8. Alibaba's "Qianwen" project was exposed: the Cantonese food window in the canteen became an unexpected "leak point"

On the afternoon of November 13, Alibaba's Hong Kong stock price changed, and once rose by nearly 6%. According to foreign media reports that day, Alibaba has secretly launched the "Qianwen" project, building a personal AI assistant of the same name - Qianwen APP based on Qwen's strongest model, and fully benchmarking against ChatGPT. According to people familiar with the matter, in the next few months, Alibaba will gradually add intelligent AI functions to the application to support shopping scenarios including Taobao. The ultimate goal is to make "Qwen" a fully functional AI intelligent agent. It also plans to launch overseas versions to promote globalization. The xn--xm-6d1dw86k.company has mobilized more than a hundred developers from within to participate in this project. There are reports that there are many Cantonese employees in the project team. This can be seen from the popularity of the Cantonese food window in Ali Canteen. The roast duck rice even sold out, triggering speculation in the industry about the content of the project. Since there are many talents in the AI ​​field in Guangdong, some people speculate that this project is likely to be related to AI. Alibaba did not xn--xm-6d1dw86k.comment on this. If true, this project will be one of Alibaba's biggest moves to explore profit models in its consumer-oriented business. The xn--xm-6d1dw86k.company hopes to attract more users by integrating AI capabilities into shopping scenarios and leveraging its e-commerce advantages.

9. SoftBank cleared Nvidia and raised funds for additional investment in OpenAI

SoftBank Group is reported to have xn--xm-6d1dw86k.completed the liquidation of Nvidia shares in October 2025, involving 32.1 million shares, with a cash amount of up to US$5.83 billion. The news caused SoftBank's stock price to plummet 10% the next day, and was sold off for the third consecutive day. This move is to raise funds for investment in OpenAI. SoftBank plans to invest an additional US$22.5 billion in OpenAI through Vision Fund 2, which is expected to be xn--xm-6d1dw86k.completed in December. Previously, SoftBank had cleared Nvidia in 2019. At that time, the investment income was US$3 billion. If it had not been sold, the floating profit would now exceed US$240 billion. SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son has publicly expressed regret for selling Nvidia shares. Although SoftBank shares have tumbled over the past week on concerns about an AI bubble, they still soared 78% in the three months to September, their best quarterly performance since December 2005. SoftBank announced that it will implement a stock split plan on January 1 next year, aiming to increase stock liquidity and expand its shareholder base.

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