Germany's inflation exceeded expectations, analysis of short-term trends of spot gold, silver, crude oil and foreign exchange on September 30

Global Market Review

1. European and American market trends

The three major U.S. stock index futures fell, Dow futures fell 0.14%, S&P 500 futures fell 0.14%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.09%. The German DAX index fell 0.05%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.11%, the French CAC40 index fell 0.37%, and the European Stoke 50 index fell 0.07%.

2. Market news interpretation

German inflation exceeded expectations, supporting the European Central Bank to remain in control

German inflation growth exceeded expectations. This is a reflection of the acceleration of inflation in the entire European region and will enhance the European Central Bank's determination to maintain interest rates unchanged. Germany's annual CPI rate in September rose 2.4% year-on-year, up from 2.1% in August, due to rising service costs and falling energy prices less than the same period last year, a result higher than economists' median forecast of 2.2%. Previously, inflation rates in other major economies in the euro zone also rose, including France, Italy and Spain. The data support the statements of officials such as ECB Executive xn--xm-6d1dw86k.committee Schnabel, which is that there is no need to cut further interest rates after interest rates are cut eight times by 25 basis points. But some, including French central bank governor Villeroy, believe that the possibility of another rate cut should not be ruled out, as inflation below targets could evolve into more lasting low inflation in the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.coming quarters.

European Central Bank officials say the EU is "overdoing" in easing bank securitization rules

European Central Bank regulator Machado said on Tuesday that the European xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commission is easing bank certificatesThe securitization regulations are overdoing, especially for more xn--xm-6d1dw86k.complex and potentially risky transactions. Securitization refers to the fact that banks package loans issued to businesses or families and then sell them to investors in the form of securities, which is the core of the global financial crisis of 2007-08. Europe has not yet fully recovered from that crisis. The European xn--xm-6d1dw86k.commission proposed in June to streamline rules governing securitization, attempting to free up lending capital and help Europe xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compete financially with the United States.

European zone inflation unexpectedly rises, and the central bank's expectation of interest rate cuts has cooled rapidly

⑴Inflation in the four major euro zone economies, Germany, France, Italy and Spain, accelerated in September, pushing the region's inflation expectations to 2.2%-2.3%, significantly higher than 2.0% in August. ⑵ Germany's reconciled consumer price index jumped to 2.4% year-on-year, France rose to 1.1%, Spain reached 3.0%, and Italy rose to 1.8%, both showing an accelerated trend. ⑶ The rebound in inflation is mainly due to the narrowing of the decline in energy prices, and the service and clothing categories in core prices have also risen slightly, but a new wave of price pressure has not been formed. ⑷ The European Central Bank has remained unchanged since the cumulative interest rate cut of 2 percentage points in June. The market is rapidly reducing expectations for subsequent interest rate cuts. The October meeting has been regarded as a policy "vacuum period". ⑸ Although the current data is rising, institutions predict that there will be a significant decline in the statistical base effect at the beginning of next year, and policy makers are making arguing whether inflation will continue to fall below the 2% target. ⑹Economic weakness poses downward pressure with the external trade environment, while defense spending growth and trade barriers form a hedge, making the price outlook full of uncertainty.

JP Morgan has significantly raised GM's target price from $60 to $80

⑴JP Morgan has significantly raised GM's target price from $60 to $80, which has a 30.9% increase xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compared with the current stock price. ⑵ Institutions pointed out that the enterprise has significantly enhanced its business resilience through strict business discipline, streamlining cost structure and international business restructuring. ⑶ In the face of changes in the external environment, the xn--xm-6d1dw86k.company plans to offset the tariff-related impact by 30% in 2025 through three measures: pricing optimization, offshore outsourcing and structural cost reduction. ⑷The current market consensus is relatively positive. 17 of the 29 institutions have given "buy" or above ratings, 10 are recommended to "hold", and the median target price is US$62. ⑸ General Motors' stock price has risen by about 15% this year, indicating the market's initial recognition of its strategic transformation.

Fund peaked at the end of the quarter, and the Federal Reserve's repurchase tool rushed to help.

⑴Quarterly settlement pressure caused overnight financing interest rates to jump 10 basis points to 4.33% on Tuesday, but then quickly fell back to the level of 4.28%, with a single-day fluctuation of 5 basis points. ⑵ US Treasury bond settlement triggered a cash withdrawal of $98 billion, coupled with the huge long positions established by the market for the Fed's expectation of interest rate cuts, jointly pushing up financing costs. ⑶ Since last Thursday, the market has continued to show a "opening strengthening - late trading fall" pattern. The current interest rate has been 4 basis points higher than the 10-day average of 4.24%, and is expected to be lower overnight interest rates on September 29.Point 4.09% to get closer. ⑷ The Federal Reserve will launch a $50 billion repurchase operation at 1:30 a.m. on Wednesday, with interest rates anchored at 4.25%, aiming to calm liquidity fluctuations at the end of the month. ⑸ The demand for overnight reverse repurchase surged due to the end-of-month effect, and the scale reached US$56.22 billion on September 29, an increase of 17% from the previous day. ⑹The yields of government bonds for each term have differentiated, with 10-year and 20-year varieties being 13 and 20 basis points lower than the overnight financing interest rates respectively, while the interest rates of short-term varieties remain the same. ⑺Federal funds futures data show that the market's expected probability of a 25 basis point cut in October has reached 91%, and the one-month regular repurchase rate is 4.266%. ⑻The pricing of short-term interest rate derivatives reflects that the market has fully digested the expectation of interest rate cuts within the year. The 0x3 overnight index swap rate is 32.6 basis points lower than the overnight financing rate.

Russian crude oil exports surged against the trend, and geopolitical game undercurrents surging

⑴Russian maritime crude oil exports continued to be strong, with an average daily export volume stable at 3.62 million barrels in the past four weeks, the same as the sixteen-month peak since May 2024. ⑵ This four-week average effectively filters short-term fluctuations, more accurately reflects the actual export trend, and shows that the stability of Russian crude oil supply exceeds expectations. ⑶ Although Trump's tariff remarks have caused market concerns and put trade pressure on many countries such as India and Türkiye, Russia's crude oil exports still maintain a strong growth momentum. ⑷ Current data shows that some major crude oil importers have not substantially adjusted their procurement strategies, and Russia's energy trade resilience is highlighted.

JPMorgan Chase's U.S. Treasury Client Survey showed that the proportion of longs rose to a new high since April

JPMorgan Chase's U.S. Treasury Client Survey showed that as of the week ended September 29, the proportion of longs rose by 2 percentage points to its highest level since April 7. The proportion of short positions decreased by 2 percentage points, and the neutral remains unchanged. The proportion of net longs reached the highest level since August 18. In contrast, active customers have net short selling for the first time in nearly a year.

India's money supply structure is now differentiated. The growth rate of cash in circulation soared

⑴India's reserve currency increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the week ending September 26, a significant narrowing from the 6% increase in the same period last year. ⑵ The year-on-year growth rate of currency in circulation suddenly rose to 9.1%, far exceeding the 5.9% growth level in the same period last year. ⑶ The currency in circulation decreased by 20.78 billion rupees in the week, and the total scale dropped to 37.98 trillion rupees. ⑷ The slowdown in base currency growth is in sharp contrast with the surge in cash demand, reflecting that people's preference for holding current has increased significantly.

The research and development of the new configuration of Japan's H3 launch vehicle encountered difficulties

The Japanese Aerospace Research and Development Agency reported at the meeting of the Special Group for the Development and Utilization of the Ministry of Science and Technology of Japan on the 29th that the H3 launch vehicle 6 failed during the engine xn--xm-6d1dw86k.combustion test in July this year, and the launch originally scheduled for implementation in this fiscal year may not be carried out as scheduled.

Italy inflation rate unexpectedly remained at 1.6% in September

⑴Italy consumer prices rose by 1 year-on-year in September 2025.6%, the same as the previous month and slightly below market expectations of 1.7%. ⑵ The growth rate of unprocessed food prices slowed to 4.8% (the previous value of 5.6%), which was enough to push food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation to 3.8% (the previous value of 4%), although processed food inflation rose to 3% (the previous value of 2.7%). ⑶ Regulated energy inflation accelerated to 14% (previous value of 12.9%), and the decline in unregulated energy prices narrowed to -5.2% (previous value of -6.3%). ⑷ The core inflation rate excluding energy and unprocessed foods remained at 2.1%. ⑸ Monthly calculations, Italian consumer prices fell by 0.2%.

Japanese bond auctions were cold, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes were expected to burn short-term bonds

⑴ Japanese Treasury bonds closed lower on Tuesday. The weak 2-year Treasury bond auction results strengthened the market's expectations for the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hikes. ⑵ The interest rate spread at the end of the 2-year Treasury bond auction expanded from 1.1 basis points last month to 1.5 basis points, with the bid multiple of 2.81 well below the average of 3.66 for the six auctions. ⑶Bank of Japan Asahi Noguchi said on Monday that economic data is steadily approaching the 2% price target, and the need for policy adjustments is greater than in the past. ⑷ Summary of opinions on the September policy meeting showed that, in addition to the two members who were known to object, three other opinions believed that interest rate hikes should be considered as soon as possible. ⑸ 10-year futures once hit a 136.07-day high due to month-end adjustment buying, but fell to 135.72 within an hour as the capital flow subsided. ⑹The Bank of Japan announced that the monthly bond purchase scale will be reduced by about 400 billion yen from October to December, of which 10-25-year varieties will be reduced by 60 billion per month. ⑺The overnight index swap shows that the market's probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points in October rose to 65.5%, and the probability in December reached 83%. ⑻The yields of each term generally rose, with a 1 basis point rise of 0.935% in the 2-year period and a slight increase of 0.5 basis point to 1.645% in the 10-year period.

3. Trends of major currency pairs in the New York Stock Exchange before the market

Euro/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, the euro/USD rose, now at 1.1741, an increase of 0.12%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (EURUSD) price closed higher in the last day intraday trading, trying to get rid of its negative pressure and touched the bearish correction trend line on a short-term basis, trying to break through its EMA50 resistance to show that the price may continue to rise in the future. The relative strength indicators show positive signals, which opens the way for more profits in the near future after digesting the overbought situation.

GBP/USD: As of 20:23 Beijing time, GBP/USD rose, now at 1.3447, an increase of 0.13%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (GBPUSD) price fluctuated and fell at its last intraday level, and was affected by the stability of the key resistance level 1.3425 and remained under the bear market pullback trend in the short term.

Spot Gold: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot gold fell and is now at 3814.88, down 0.49%. Before the New York market, the (gold) price fell in the last intraday trading to collect its gains from its previous rise, trying to unload its overbought conditions on the relative strength indicator, from which negative signals appear, collecting its positive strength, which may turn to a bullish track after a continuous rise, dominant bullish trend on a short-term basis, and trade along the trend line, continuing the positive pressure from trading above EMA5, if the stability of the current resistance is maintained, strengthening its chances of recovery.

Spot silver: As of 20:23 Beijing time, spot silver fell and is now at 46.117, down 1.70%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, the (silver) price settled with a sharp decline in the last intraday trading, with negative signals on the relative strength indicators. After reaching the overbought level, it erased all the gains from yesterday, collected the gains and tried to gain bullish momentum, which may restore positive balance on the near-term basis, and dynamic support represented by the exchange above the EMA50 continues under the leadership of the main bullish trend, and traded beside the main and secondary support trend lines of the track before that.

Crude Oil Market: As of 20:23 Beijing time, U.S. oil fell, now at 62.300, a drop of 1.80%. Before the New York Stock Exchange, after the relatively strong indicators reached the oversold level, the loss was relatively stopped, and the crude oil price fell to a low in the last intraday trading. With the emergence of these oversold conditions, prices began to fall, especially as these indicators showed positive overlap signals.

4. Institutional View

Deutsche Bank: The government shutdown cannot shake the foundation of the US dollar, and historical experience shows resilience

⑴ Deutsche Bank analyst Thu Lan Nguyen pointed out that if the US Congress fails to avoid the government shutdown this week, the impact on the US dollar is expected to be relatively limited. ⑵ The government shutdown will directly lead to the delayed release of the US job market report this week, and the long-term shutdown may drag down economic activities. ⑶ But the bank emphasized that these impacts are not permanent. Historical data shows that the delayed data will eventually be released, and economic losses will be xn--xm-6d1dw86k.compensated. ⑷ Based on the market performance during the past government shutdown, the US dollar exchange rate is expected to show strong resistance to pressure.

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